Back in January our expectations were for massive option gains from either TSLA and/or an expected market crash of historic proportions. Instead, we caught a bid with Bitcoin closing out most of our BITO calls at +615% at March expiration, and on a confirmatory analysis based entry into GLD on March 1st, jumped head first into a series of GLD call plays that has carried us into multiple GLD call positions, into March, Jun and now July expirations. Summary: GLD Trades YTD As of the week's close, this Gold rally is starting to look more like a third than a fifth, i.e., about to take on the look of a dynamic "something to behold" impulse wave higher: GLD Intermediate Term Trend This Daily bar chart of GLD has three major entries into GLD calls mapped as part of a five waves up targeting about GLD $245-250 for a price target before any meaningful decline is expected. With GLD closing the week at about $224, that represents quite a run-up still to come. By holding Jun 21st and Jul 19th calls, we hope to catch most of that GLD 25 point run higher over the next six to eight weeks. If it takes any longer, we will look toward adding August and/or September calls to the arsenal. For now, new capital should be allocated to the July 19th expiration and should GLD take a tumble far enough to trigger trailing stops on any current holdings, we will likely add those new expirations as soon as the price pattern allows. Gold Futures This Gold Futures pattern is classic, a series of Fibonacci retracements (shaded rectangles) all the way up. Five waves up, of which only three can be counted in the intermediate term trend so far, meaning at a minimum one sizable impulse wave higher to come, a Wave 5 to $2500 or close to it ($2495 is shown on the Fib extension tool). Silver Futures Initial SLV position in PRO Service Silver Futures - Weekly A longer term weekly look at Silver Futures with a $43 target in the years ahead. Note the breakout above 4-year resistance with clear implications that this move up is closer to the beginning than the end. What does this say about the future course of inflation, interest rates, politics, and geopolitical cycles? Copper Long Term (Weekly) Breakout "The most compelling trade I've seen in my 30-Year trading career" TSLA Until TSLA breaks out above the descending trend line from the late December 2023 highs, we can't be certain of this wave count. For now the assumption is a Wave 2 low put in late April, which should be followed with a robust Wave 3 rally well above $200 and approaching $300 in the next 6-12 months. There will be tells along the way, at which point we can get more aggressive with TSLA calls. As for the fundamentals, I am three days into a complimentary Full Self Driving 30-day trial and without reservation whatsoever, this is the future of personal transportation, and TSLA owns it. Cybertrucks are not proliferating in Scottsdale as per my previous mentioned expectations, but that can be accounted for by a myriad of economic considerations outside of the company's longer term trajectory. I felt this way about Apple in the early 1990's and look how that worked out. When this one starts its next run, be ready. Until then, be patient.
