A Few Words About TSLA Our last word about TSLA was Jan 10th @ $235 wherein a fresh Sell Signal put any thought of buying back calls out of the picture. Since then, TSLA has fallen well below $200, keeping any call buying in abeyance until we have a proper set-up, a fresh Intermediate and/or Long Term Buy Signals. The fundamentals, though tarnished in the financial media, remain stellar, but let's get all the irrational selling out of the way before our 2024 Stock of the Year does what it always has done, surprise the pants off of everyone to the upside. TSLA Daily TSLA - Long Term Even in bearish trends Buy Signals generated by the Trend Model have been good for several hundred percent gains. So long as losses are kept at 50%, over the long run this is an excellent stock for calls. The Big Picture IWM This IWM chart remains the clearest picture of what is unfolding from a big picture point of view. As described Thursday, a close below 194.00 will trigger a new trade to the downside in the IWM Mar 15th $195P, with strikes as low as $190 all attractive for a new leg down. This move will indicate at a Wave 2 retracement has ended while a third wave down begins. Anything less than a clear breakdown means that either Wave 2 is extending sideways, or, its not a Wave 2 at all. SPY Long Term: Classic - Five Waves Complete Sometime later this year we will look back at this SPY chart, smack our collective heads and say, "Of course, this was a top, five waves up, touching the upper channel trend line and reversing lower." The only thing missing is the reversal lower. It's coming, that's why I am so focused on a trigger. For now, IWM is the closest tell we have, it just hasn't spoken, yet. Back To Extreme Greed Until this index drops to below 25 the risk in trading anything to the long side far outweighs any short-term rewards. Interest Rates: Canary In The Coal Mine? 10 Year Yield The 10 Year Yield (US Treasuries) looks poised for another run at 5%. If so, look out below, the market is not expecting it and in fact is expecting the opposite, lower rates. If rates accelerate higher, it will be a raucous year for equities, Bitcoin Fib retracement just overhead should represent the extent of this rally before the next leg down. A run much higher than that shaded zone would be intermediate term bullish.
