TSLA - The Good This first table below contains a plethora of statistics related to the Cybertruck. Most important for my purposes is the 1.9 million reservations, second only to the estimated revenue to be generated by those reservations: $147 Billion. To put that in perspective for all of 2022, Ford Motor Company's total revenues for all of their divisions, everything, was $165 billion. In other words, at some point after Cybertruck reaches full production it will generate revenues on par with the entirety of Ford, not just the F-150, but all of Ford, it's ICE vehicles, all of its electric vehicles. and of course, Ford Credit, it's financial division encompassing all of the above. Cybertruck Reservation Tracker When I point out that Cybertruck sales are not fully accounted for in the current TSLA share price, perhaps this will provide some context for such a bold statement. TSLA's just reported quarterly revenues for the three months that ended in Jun, 2023, was $25 billion. Cybertruck, once in full production, will dominate revenues, earnings, headlines and maybe most of all, turning heads on the streets and highways of America. When was the last time a product changed lives on a global scale? If you just reached for your iPhone, you get it! In the next 5-10 years TSLA will make that exponential turn up that AAPL did beginning in 2010, three years into the introduction of the iPhone and about when it became ubiquitous for cellphones. If the analogue holds, a TSLA price target is $2,500 (10X current price), a range cited by the man, himself on last week's call: "I have very high confidence in the long-term value of Tesla, I see it, I really see a path to a 10x, maybe call it a 5x increase in the value of the company," Musk said."Maybe a 10x. Where things go along the way, the trials and tribulations and the mood of the markets, one cannot predict." -Elon Musk, quoted on earnings call, July 19, 2023 But First: The Bad SPY - Moving toward an Intermediate Term Sell - tradable. (1) 180 Minute Trend Model Sell Signal (2) Five waves up to Intermediate Wave (2) (3) Pending: Breakdown of Wave 5 channel <450 Therefore: Intermediate Term Sell Signal on close below SPY 450 If it looks like SPY closes below 450 on any day next week, we will be buying SPY puts, to be determined day-to-day. QQQ - On the edge QQQ is confirming the bearish message being set up by SPY. We cannot ignore these signals, i.e., any more weakness triggers action in the form of initial put positions in SPY/QQQ, keeping a close eye on DJIA and VIX for what could be the frosting on the cake. Bottom Line SPY under $450 and QQQ under $375 should send the stock market into a tailspin beginning next week. Stay close to updates. And Finally, The Ugly VIX > 15.00 This could be our sleeper trade of the year. Calls are cheap and getting cheaper every day. If we see VIX bounce above $15 anytime soon, expect a speculative moonshot trade, looking for 30+ before next monthly expiration.
