TSLA Close Friday: $190.41 As the chart below indicates, there is still no new Intermediate Term Trading Buy Signal for TSLA. The more days that shares can stay above the signal line, the higher the chances that a Buy will be generated, that's just how the model works. My guess is that Monday will tell the tale, either a fresh Buy Up Arrow, or a breakdown below the signal line, currently sitting around $183.50. The Big Picture: Downside Acceleration The headlines dominated last week, leading off with the 0.25 basis point interest rate raise by the Fed, along with the rumors swirling around Deutsche Bank (DB) being the next big financial institution to drop. Despite the price patterns of most indices forming the Wave 3 of (3) down profile, it just doesn't feel like a Wave '3" yet, as what is missing and due now (this coming week) is downside acceleration as there can be no third wave down at multiple degrees of trend without it. Our "third wave down" options portfolio: A typical Wave 3 should have all "Return" cells filled with triple digit gains, Current and Best, and many of those of the 200-300-400% range. So far, only IWM and to a lessor extent, IYR are cooperating in triple digits, so either the big picture analysis is wrong, or, the third wave down at multiple degrees of trend is just getting started. With IWM making year-to-date new lows, the latter explanation makes the most sense. IWM The real payoff still lays ahead, a market panic with trading halts and limit down days while we hold index puts and volatility (VIX) calls. Once that arrives, we can start looking forward to new lows which should be well below the lowest levels of Oct 2022 and even March 2020. The alternate scenario is that market lows are already in and TSLA begins its trip to a $3 Trillion market cap ($1,000/share), early, carrying Nasdaq on its back to new highs later this year. But there is nothing in my pattern recognition analysis that points in that direction. In fact, the opposite is true as illustrated in the SPY chart below. This price pattern is nothing if not bearish and a drop below the indicated key levels will confirm and kick-off downside acceleration. SPY - Watch for a break of March lows to trigger much worse to the downside. A break of March lows will all but confirm the onset of downside acceleration. If those levels get broken next week, expect to hear from me with some dire forecast. If those levels get taken out on the same day, add to the above referenced third wave options portfolio as all of the positions will be going much higher. It would take a rally above SPY 420 to temper the bearish forecast, but by then we will have already jumped into TSLA calls with both hands. IYR - Real estate: Next shoe to drop? If so, our $80P is going up 10X. WFC - Another 10 bagger in the making. When the music stops The Doors - Live
