The Big Picture The stock market indices continue to trace out a series of first and second waves DOWN in advance of what is developing into the mother of all Wave 3 Downs. I will be sticking with the Wave 3 Down narrative until it manifests, or patterns reverse so as to cancel it out. I would be all over that as well. Those are the only two resolutions, and one, if not both, results in mega option gains along the way. Trade Management Next week is the last week to trade July 15th expiration. No matter what happens the first few days of the week, by the end of the week all strategic bearish positions (index puts, volatility calls) should be rolled over to monthly expirations for August (Aug 19th) and/or September (Sep 16th). Look for special Alerts should an opportunity arise to trade a weekly volatility call in UVXY or VXX. My favored "stress-free" intermediate term trade continues to be IYR Sep 16th $100P (see IYR chart below). CHARTS SPX IWM IYR One way to go all in on a Wave 3 decline is to watch a chart like IYR and when price breaks down below the Wave 2 channel, pull the trigger with a stop back above the just broken trend line. The mid September target range is mid-70's so there is a lot of leverage still available with those Sep 16th $100 Puts, even more so with the $90/95 Puts. The trade is up 40% since the May 3rd entry but has been as high as +150% (Jun 16th). Target is +300%+. Long Stocks TSLA The May 24th low of $620 still stands as the 2022 LOW for Tesla, and it remains to be seen if that will end up being the launching pad price level for TSLA's run to $3,000. The big picture narrative of a Wave 3 decline of multiple degrees suggests that $620 will at least be tested once again before a clear path materializes to what will be a third wave advance to a $3 Trillion market cap. It's coming, if not in 2023, than 2024. In August TSLA will split 3/1. The last split was August 31, 2020, a 5/1 split @ $2,500. The newly issued $500 shares then ran up to $900 in the ensuing six months. Let's call that a double and set the same expectations for this coming split, i.e., about a double by January 2023. From there, the real fun begins. Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) Alzheimer's is the fifth-leading cause of death among those aged 65 & older and is also a leading cause of disability & poor health. An estimated 5.8 million Americans aged 65 and older were living with Alzheimer's dementia in 2020. 80% of this population was aged 75 or older. This number is expected to increase to 13.5 million by 2050. Among people of age 70, 61% of those with Alzheimer's dementia are expected to die before the age of 80 compared with 30% of people without Alzheimer's. The rising prevalence of Alzheimer's disease has increased the demand for the treatment, which in turn is expected to boost the market growth. ---Bloomberg, May 2022: Alzheimer's Drugs Market Size worth US$ ~9.67 billion by 2031 ANAVEX'S LEAD THERAPEUTIC AVXL - Long Term Breakout We are adding AVXL to our long term "Buy and Hold" portfolio, which means its not a trading stock so much as it is a 10-bagger in the making, much the way TSLA was added in late 2019. Nonetheless, we still traded TSLA and we will still trade AVXL, but while it is still under $20/share buying shares is as good as trading calls on pattern recognition Buy Signals, as we have in the above 2-Day chart. Target is above $30, time period is 12-24 months, or one unexpected blockbuster news press release, whichever comes first. Long Term Buy Signal: AVXL $12.78 Intermediate Term Options: Oct 21st $12C (3.50-4.20) Long-Term Option - LEAP: Jan 19, 2024 $15C (4.40-6.90) Note: Option bid-ask spreads can be huge so "market" orders are not recommended, but these spreads tend to narrow as the trading sessions goe on, making it easier to obtain a better price later in the day. Stops on options and/or stock: -50% Highly Recommended: Anavex's Therapeutic Platform - Video Presentation (46 Minutes)
