The Big Picture Next week is the last week of August, which culminates with the 3-day Labor day weekend, followed by Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year which starts on Tuesday. The first two days are historically slow market days, creating more of a 5-day weekend at the end of this week. In other words, this coming week could devolve into one of the slowest trading periods of the year. Two important caveats: (1) Geopolitical risk as a news event could turn end-of-summer doldrums into extreme volatility; (2) September-October is the most likely period of the year for a significant bottom in the market. With indexes making new highs into the end of August, it is hard to fathom how a low is anywhere in sight. Then again, it's still only August. VXX We need to be ever vigilante because as set out in Thursday's update, VXX is extremely oversold and ripe for a pop, as much as a 50% pop, opening the door to insane profits in Sep calls. The Sep 17th $28C ended the week at 1.30. If VXX were to run to $40 (a 50% rise from current levels), those calls would go up 10X. Worth waiting all summer for? Bitcoin Bitcoin trades globally (no holiday weekends) and it is coming up against a New Moon Cycle High on Sep 6th, Labor Day. As shown on the chart below, New Moons have represented short-term Bitcoin tops seven out of the eight New Moons, year-to-date. A Trend Model Sell Signal (red arrows) next week would create an attractive put trade in one of our Bitcoin mining stocks, MARA, RIOT or MSTR. Stay tuned. MARA-Trading The Bitcoin Cycle The Bitcoin cycle low window was over last weekend and provided an opportunity to buy Bitcoin and/or calls in one of the Bitcoin stocks, MARA, RIOT or MSTR. Last Friday MARA opened @ $32 and closed around $35. It closed yesterday at $40.20, about a 15% gain for the week. The Sep 17th $35C closed last Friday at $4.20 and traded as high as $7.10 during the week before closing yesterday at $6.80, about a 50% gain for the week. This is an example of how to utilize these cycles in Bitcoin for short-term option trading. Otherwise, simply use the cycle lows to accumulate Bitcoin and try to avoid buying around the new moons. TSLA The highly recommended June 2023 $1,200C traded between $7,800 and $10,100 during this past week, while TSLA traded between $680 and $715. There are 659 days until expiration during which I expect TSLA will double two times, bringing its price north of $2,000. At $2K, that call will have an intrinsic value of $80,000, but we will be out by then, and into the Jun 2025 $4,000C. Anecdotal evidence: (1) I placed a purchase order for a new Tesla Model Y in early July, scheduled delivery: October. The delivery was pushed back to November, December and just this past week: January 2022. Tesla is sold out for the rest of this year and wait time is now six months, or more. This doesn't include the 1.5 million pre-orders for the new Cybertruck. Wait time for these is 1-4 years (I'm on that list too). (2) My Model 3 is appreciating in trade-in value almost weekly. At its current rate of appreciation it will be worth close to the cost of my new Model Y by delivery in early 2022. If this is happening to me, it's happening to others and it won't be long before word spreads that unlike ICE vehicles that depreciate with every new day and mile, Tesla's appreciate with every new day and mile. What's next, puts on GM and F? [Stand-by.] GM & F Intermediate Term Trend Models
