The cat was let out of the bag in Wednesday's TSLA Update, but today I will put some option performance numbers to that selection so as to emphasisze the importance of taking every TSLA call recommendation going forward, at a minimum throughout 2024 and 2025 and possibly for two more years on top of those. I already have a file labeled, "Tesla Testimonials" from subscribers who thanked me for my TSLA option recommendations throughout 2020-2021 in which many friends of this service literally "got rich" buying and holding the Jan 2021 $420C. For those who are new to our service, here is post from Dec 31, 2019 with that call front and center and prior to its 10,000% run: Updated Intermediate Term Trading Table - Dec 31, 2019 "The TSLA Jan $350C hit its $59.54 stop this morning, resulting in a 310.63% gain. The calls has since risen well back above the stop price so if you are still holding, continue to do so, using today's $56.83 low as your new stop. We still are holding long-term the TSLA Jan 2021 $420C with a 110% gain and will be looking for a new Intermediate Term entry in the days ahead." Today, Dec 30, 2023, just four years later almost to the day, we embark on a new set of TSLA calls only this time with company that has turned question marks into execution across multiple products and innovations. Here is the final posting on that Jan 2021 TSLA $420C, which due to a 5-1stock split adjustment went off the board as the Jan 15, 2021 $84C: So What Has TSLA Done For Us Lately? Here is a table of just the Premium Service TSLA trades from calendar year 2023. Note that a 50% trailing stop column is included as a contrast to the "Best Return" column, the assumption being that although its impossible to nail top tick on any one option trade, we have demonstrated over the past 14 years of this service that "scalping" 50% of best returns is eminently doable. Note that two trades didn't work, one stopped at -50% (July 3, 2023) and one that is still ongoing, meaning it is not stopped out yet, nor has it reached +50% guaranteeing a minimum break-even trade (Nov 15, 2023). Key take-away is the May 5th blockbuster trade that reached as high as +876.54% before the trailing stop worked its magic, capturing at least half, or +438.27% of that gain. Discussed above was our mega blockbuster trade of Dec 9, 2019 that held to expiration was up over 10,000%. There have been others, chronicled in our archives, as well as in select YouTube videos. Going forward, expect at least one of these blockbuster TSLA trades a year, but considering Cybertruck and all those preorders, anything less than two TSLA blockbusters a year would be a disappointment. See, "TSLA - Update" (Dec 27), for detailed discussion. Past Performance IS NOT A GUARANTEE of Future Results Back to Tesla In Wednesday's TSLA Update two price projections were referenced, one by Ron Baron and one by Cathie Wood: "Meanwhile, even as Tesla might not be able to sell 20 million cars annually by 2030, its long-term forecast looks bullish. Ron Baron expects the stock to hit $1,500 by 2030, while Cathie Wood - who’s arguably the biggest Tesla bull - has set a base case 2027 target price of $2,000 on Tesla. Even her bear case target price is $1,400, while the bull case target price is $2,500." Today let's add this little discussed price forecast by the man himself, Elon Musk, who prices TSLA's future market cap as exceeding the total market cap of Apple Computer and Aramco, combined! Elon Musk predict's Tesla's likely stock price in 2029 - $5.2 trillion market cap. Putting all thee forecasts together, we have a stock price on the low end at $1,400 (Wood bear case) and the high end $2,500 (Wood bull case & Baron) by the end of this decade, with Musk in the middle, at about $1,600 in five years, up about 6-fold from current prices, minimum. Then there is this, that TSLA is undervalued TODAY by 50%: link. That suggests at that a minimum TSLA will double in 2024. Coincidentally that's about what TSLA did in 2023, so let's go forward as though TSLA will double every year for the foreseeable future, taking share price up to $520 in 2024, $1100 in 2025 and $2,200 into 2026. That is only slightly more aggressive than the respective forecasts made by Musk, Baron and Wood. How will an option trader bullish on TSLA fare under those conditions? Our table above for 2023 is a perfect example of what to expect, at least one blockbuster option trade a year (500%+) a handful of triple digit gains and an occasional 50% loss. With our methodology, trend models combined with pattern recognition analysis, we will nail each and every one, winners and losers, albeit mostly the former as that is the direction of the stock, for the foreseeable future. In Summary For this my year-end Weekend Update I wanted to present an analysis of our approach to option trading as it played out in 2023. A subset of those trades included the above-referenced TSLA calls. I hope my point has been made, and sure there will be other opportunities in both the Premium and PRO Services, but none so dynamic and consequential for profitable trading as TSLA and it's calls, Intermediate, Long Term and Short-Term, IN THAT ORDER, as the year unfolds. Happy New Year to all from an excited and highly motivated TSLA bull in central Arizona. Allan PS (and slightly off-topic): Let's Go Blue!
