In the spirit of, "Find something that works, then trade it." Bitcoin Monthly Cycle The full moons all come in the last week of each month. Also occurring in the last week of each month, specifically the last Friday of each month, is Bitcoin Options Expiration on the CME: In simple trading terms: (1) Full Moon + Last week of each month = Buying opportunity for Bitcoin (and its derivatives). The next Full Moon is May 26th and the next CME Bitcoin options expiration is May 28th. (2) New moons represent temporary tops. The last new moon was May 11th, which was the day Elon Musk's tweet announcing the cessation of Tesla accepting Bitcoin for payments on new vehicles. It set off a Bitcoin selling cascade dropping the price from $58,000 to $48,500 within 24 hours...all in shadow of the May 11th new moon. GBTC Trading Chart: Buy on Full Moons; Sell on New Moons Buying/Selling/Shorting GBTC using the 2-week Moon Cycle Summary An edge is an edge, even if it is coming out of left field, or in this case, 238,855 miles above. On a more earth-based analysis there probably are deep pocket institutional explanations as to why Bitcoin dives into the week of options expiration, and then rises in the two weeks thereafter. That post-option expiration rally high comes around mid-month (new moons), followed by consistent drops into options' expiration weeks. Trading the Miners Since both RIOT and MARA have calls and puts an options trading system that alternates buying 2-week puts at mid-month and then switching out for 2-week calls the last Friday of the month may be worth pursuing. I'll save that back-test for another day. Data Points All of the above analysis is based upon trading Bitcoin during its doubling of price since late 2020. Preliminary analysis back into mid-2020 shows the same patterns. Although going back 12-18 months is ideal, in this case it has been the past six months that has brought Bitcoin into focus as a major financial instrument and gaining widespread acceptance by mainstream institutions. Limited data points not withstanding, a trend is a trend, until it is not. Right now, the trends and patterns shown above are working and the appropriate trading premise is that Bitcoin will be putting in a low sometime in the next two weeks. It would probably be a good idea to be all-in on Bitcoin going into Memorial Day weekend.
