This holiday weekend's update will be brief and to the point. We have some July calls built around a theme of EW impulsive patterns that can with stand anything short of a market crash. Defensive positions have not worked for several weeks-to-months, so maybe Mr. Market is telling us something. July July, being the month of my birth, has always been a special place for my stock market trading. It started in the 1970's oil crisis, in particular, OXY calls which doubled, then tripled, then quadrupled, all while I laid naked with my stoner friends on the then pristine beaches of Martha's Vineyard, thus introducing me to the magical and exponential growth potential of a well placed option bet, an addiction that stays with me to this very day. Let's take a peak at our July positions as they are priced this weekend: July Positioning - Premium Service Note that when you keep your losses under control, it only takes one or two big winners to make all the difference in results. Leading the pack is TSLA, RKLB and NOK, but, the Friday addition of RDW may very well be the first of our July 10-baggers. Even taking under consideration a 3-day market holiday, there will still be 53 days to go until July expiration when the opening bells rings on Tuesday. A lot can happen, good, bad and indifferent, in 53 days. Our approach going forward and into the July 4th Weekend ahead is that time is on our side, for once, especially if the market continues to grind higher. Which brings me to hedging those July bullish bets, some options beyond those IBIT puts that are still hanging in there from May 18th. If the market is headed toward a bloodbath, Bitcoin will be one of the first to suffer a dramatic haircut. Among other contenders will be well priced calls in the highly leveraged inverse indices, SOXS and QID. So long as we keep risk on any single downside bet to 50%, we can hedge appropriately and if wrong, more than make up for that risk in a few select longs. Space X The buzz surrounding the coming SpaceX IPO is head toward a crescendo of bullish sentiment. Could it propel stocks further upwards in what could be a historic run across the board? Or, will it mark a tradable top with opportunities galore to the downside? We don't have to decide now, or even guess as to which of these two outcomes will come to pass. The charts will tell us all we need to know and the same patterns that have guided our trading for the past 15 years will guide us post SpaceX. Bottom Line: Whatever the outcome, there will be multiple 10-bagger option opportunities emerging out of the chaos. Our only job is to recognize, adapt and pull the damn trigger. Easier said than done? Maybe, but the reward will be well worth the effort. Key Charts NFLX Not all charts are bullish. NFLX is one breakdown away from a third wave decline at multiple degrees of trend being confirmed. TSLA On the other hand, a case cam be made that TSLA is one breakout away from confirming a third wave higher toward the top of the channel at $900-$1,000. SpaceX Merger...anyone? NOK According to a traditional EW count, NOK is on its way to tripling its price, not from last year, not from last month, but from Friday's close! I've identified above the previous breakouts over the past few months, any one of which was a BUY SIGNAL for a new leg up. Why is this week's breakout any different? RKLB One of our two SpaceX clones (RDW the other), price keeps grinding higher with lofty projections still ahead. Another choice between top of channel - 175 - or Fib extension levels between 200 and 450. Choose your strike. Another SpaceX tag-along. RDW Weekly A rare weekly chart to feast our eyes upon, with conservative targets to $50 into the fall and ultimately 4X times that into 2027. Seem pie in the sky? We started trading RKLB in Sep 2024 when it was in single digits and its run to $139 over less than two years was done mostly without the hoopla of SpaceX. Patience, grasshoppers. RKLB Weekly - With Premium Service Buy Signals Average RKLB Trade = +305.92% (with one still open) BTC Our one remaining short position, IBIT July puts, still looking promising for a 5th wave down in Bitcoin and IBIT. Still hanging in with these July $40P S&P 500 - Troubling Wave Count Saving the worst, for last: SpaceX or not, this is a troubling wave count as it can be counted as a complete, a/k/a terminal, five waves up from the Covid 2020 lows. I will be monitoring this chart closely next week and any price decline beyond normal back and forth chop could trigger us back into a more bearish posture, i.e., index puts and/or SOXS calls. Active Option Trades PRO Service Premium Service
