Saturday, AM I shut the computer down after the close on Friday and took my mind off the markets until just a few minutes ago, early Saturday morning in the desert. While sipping just-brewed coffee, in-between bites of a freshly baked blueberry muffin, I skimmed my news and financial streams on X. This is where it got interesting, as where I was expecting extreme fear and panic, instead I found a consensus that Friday's close was come climatic low, or maybe just one more trading day away from that major low and that Monday would provide a buying opportunity of the year, much like Monday, April 7, 2025 was the buying opportunity of 2025, from which a monster rally took the market averages to all time highs by mid-year. While such a consensus could always be right, market psychology and five decades of living and breathing such sentiment tells me it's unlikely to unfold as neatly as is being postulated. Pattern recognition has kept us steadfastly short the stock indices for much of the past few months. As I have pointed out previously, we were about a month early in our aggressive option positions, but, sticking to the charts did position us nicely when the indices finally cracked last week. Rather than be influenced by strangers on X, let's take our market prognostication from the actual charts that positioned us short when the dam finally burst. There are only four to consider, or five if you count Bitcoin, and if you have been paying attention, they all point to much lower price levels before a completed intermediate term five waves down can be counted. The consensus crowd is going long on Monday, but the charts below are screaming, SHORT, SHORT, SHORT. Let's dive in. Charts & Analysis DJIA 2-Day I could probably stop here with this 2-Day DJI chart, laying out a third wave at multiple degrees of trend. Most every index is showing similar iterations on this theme, i.e., another 15-20% lower in the weeks ahead. SPX Weekly We have been tracking this S&P 500 Weekly chart with its 8 week EMA ever since the down red arrow circa Feb 23rd. If it matches the decline shown from Feb-Apr 2025, it still has aways to go. The EMA has to turn up...before we do. QQQ Daily The elongated horizontal channel holding up QQQ since late 2025 has finally been decisively broken to the downside and as with the DJI and IWM, it is tracing out a third wave down at multiple degrees of trend. My guess, its less than half over and some event horizon is still ahead that will cause the panic this market so richly deserves. Note that there is a Wave 4 (circle) at the end five waves down suggestive of another leg up to all time highs when this "Wave 4" is over. What will lead the way? SpaceX is my leading candidate. More on that later this spring or summer. IWM Consistent with its simplicity, IWM is unfolding in an orderly decline with the steep and disorderly part still ahead. Note the Wave 5 target, virtually 200, or below. Our next strike for new puts, going out to May or June, will be 220, or lower. BTC 2-Day I don't like this BTC Wave count, as Wave 3 is not dramatic enough and it can never be the shortest impulse wave. Therefore, consider placing that 3 where the 5 is above, between $39K and $16K, with Wave 5 resting below $15K. Now that is the kind of a dramatic Wave 3 and devastating Wave 5 that Bitcoin deserves. Spot Gold 2-Day This is pattern that got us Long GLD as per Friday's Into The Close. It's still 60-40 that the Wave 4 low is in, so we bought the Jun $500C, but the real payoff for GLD may have to wait for Sep-Dec expirations. Active Option Tables We finished this past week with some stellar gains across the board in our active option positions. Starting next week any new positions will go out into May or June. Premium Service PRO Service
