Stock Indices Two or three times a year I get mega bearish, meaning either a very high conviction that the market is going down shorter-term, or that there is the potential for a longer-term and deeper decline, and every once in a great while, that dreaded five letter word: Crash. The good news is I don't see a market crash ahead. The bad news? Not only that a shorter-term decline is in the cards, but that it can persist for weeks to months and go a lot further down than anyone expects. Bottom Line: You're paying me to call out trading opportunities, however and whenever they occur. This isn't in my view a market direction call, it is a trading opportunity, to the downside and one that is worthy of a decent sized bet. SPY Weekly I showed this chart late Friday in a little different form, here it is today, to include last week's trading and a dangerous cross over to the downside. SPY has crossed below its 8 Week EMA, either it turns back up immediately next week, or its down and hard down; no other options are on the table. QQQ Hourly: Looking for a gap-down Open on Tuesday. This hourly chart of QQQ shows the top back in October, with price tracing out a first and second wave into the January 28th Wave (2) highs. From there it has been the beginning of a third of a third wave down which stalled, begrudgingly, late last week, just above support, where an acceleration down is poised to begin. Next week, either its hard down, or, something less bearish is unfolding. I'm betting on the former, albeit would prefer that something else, less dire, is the market's intermediate term fate. IWM Daily Putting EW aside for the moment, this IWM Daily chart looks benign enough, unless next week sees price breakdown below one, two or three major support areas. Each one is labeled on the chart and each breakdown can be used as an "add-on" trigger for IWM puts. Above IWM 272, the path of least resistance turns bullish. Trading Strategy We added these market index puts in early February. So far, they are treading water, but both positions go into next week well situated to benefit from an immediate market decline. A price breakdown next week and I will be adding to the above positions, and maybe aggressively. I'll post any new positions in a Daily update, but if in doubt, go "next month" and "just-out-of-the-money." Gold & Silver After six months of straight up, Gold and Silver topped in late January and have been in somewhat of a corrective mode since. Two weeks do not correct six months, so my expectation is two more weeks, minimum, before aggressive upside bets are in order. However, its not what I think, its what price does, that matters. Of the two precious metals, Gold is holding up better, but Silver may be the key to when the correction ends and a new leg up begins. Gold A breakout above $5,200 would almost compel me to jump back into GLD calls. I'd prefer a hard down to the bottom of the parallel channel around $4,600 or so, first, but if Gold flies, we buy. Silver Silver needs to climb back above $100 to turn the chart back bullish, although I might start some new positions in the $90's. A work in progress. Bitcoin: Just in Case Prechter's Bookends Robert Prechter put out a special report on Bitcoin late Friday. In it he went back to his first write-up of Bitcoin in September, 2010, where he recommended it at 6 cents, how he prematurely called a top in December, 2017 @ $20,000 (+330,000X @ 6 cents) and finally, how as of this report, dated February 13, 2026, he is calling for it to decline to at least $3,233, but more likely to zero, yes, $0.00! A bold prediction, by any measurement. Here is his current longer-term wave count, with downside targets: If either of his targets are hit, $3,233 or $0.00, it would be a shame if we didn't own some IBIT puts along the way. Look for me to start tracking Bitcoin again...just in case. BTC 2-Day Trading Chart Active Options "Active" = Unexpired & Not Subject to -50% Hard Stop PRO Service Premium Service
