Friday the major market averages descended right to their lower trend lines of their respective retracement channels....and stopped. Calm before the storm, or dip to be bought for new all time highs? Either way, opportunities should be bountiful over the summer, especially between Tuesday and July 4th. Fireworks expected, leaning toward the downside, but well aware that the upside could be spectacular into Labor Day. What a game, eh? The Big Picture Waves one-down and two-retracement on the major market averages, all of them below at different degrees of trend implying that the next wave - down - will be a whopper. "Implying," does not mean, "guaranteeing," so we now look for confirmation by price breaking down through the channels, preferably with a big gap down next week coming out of the three-day weekend. Anything less keeps options open for more upside and more upside could invalidate the bearish count. DJI SPY QQQ IWM Lots of info on the 240 minute chart of IWM, starting on the upper left hand corner with a major top in November, 2024, leading to an initial Wave 1-2 into February, 2025 and then a completed five waves down to complete Intermediate Wave (1) into April 7th. That was followed by six weeks of an upwards retracement channel , labeled here as Intermediate Wave (2), topping mid-week right into a Fibonacci 50% of Intermediate Wave (1), then a handful of price bars breaking down over the past two days and a third red down arrow signifying yet another channel breakdown. Finally, note the price targets forecasted by the Fibonacci trend extension tool (right side of chart), to IWM 155 and then IWM 130, maybe by Labor Day. That would bookmark the severe price damage of Intermediate Term Wave 3 down to between the Summer -open Memorial Day three-day weekend and the Summer-closed Labor Day three day weekend. It would also provide three option expirations, Jun, July and August, to capitalize on the move. Ready, Set.... let's see how the last week of May goes before getting too short..then Go, all in on the short side. Bitcoin The chart below is a Bitcoin Weekly price chart, our Good News - Bad News chart of the week. The good news is the bullish wave count and Fibonacci forecast to a quarter-million dollars sometime later 2025 or early 2026. The bad news is that BTC was given a golden opportunity to break above that horizontal channel on Friday, but it failed to do so, requiring the "Pending" label on a Weekly Buy Signal. This will be a good chart to watch over the holiday weekend (unless you have anything better to do) for a clue as to Tuesday's stock market open. A strong Bitcoin price would bode well for stocks, a weak Bitcoin price and I would turn to that IWM chart above as leading market indicator, strongly suggesting the market is turning down, maybe hard down, into early June. BTC Weekly - Long Term Bonds & Interest Rates TLT Channel breakdowns lead to lower prices, the story of the 20-Year Treasury Bonds since the 4th quarter of 2024. Four consecutive Sell Signals, (defined by price breaking down out of a retracement up channel - see Tutorial info below), the fourth of which occurred just last week. Note the Fibonacci forecasted price targets. What could be the catalyst for a market decline this summer? Look no further than the usual suspect, higher interest rates, i.e., 5.25% as per the 10 year treasury note forecasted yield in the chart below. TNX A break-out above the top horizontal channel line could be the frosting on the cake for the stock indices charts above, which could in unison react with gaps down into their respective third waves. 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