Simple message for a simple bet. The market has risen against our Nov and Dec puts about as far as it can go without cancelling out the pattern recognition premises that we are in a multi-year bear market. Taking losses does not put one in the mood to make the same bet over again, but that is exactly when you should be. If wrong the market will race to new highs and the money made on TSLA and a few other select longs will be substantial. But if right, we will recover and prosper from the trade below: Although the highlighted the $170P is our official recommendation any of the strikes between $165 and $175 are appropriate bets on a new leg down manifesting in the next 30-60 days. We are already holding the Jan 19th $165P, but as you can see, they have exceeded the 50% trailing stop level and after having only a modest 1.83% "Best Level," it is probably our worst timed trade of the year. IWM Daily The Oct 27th low was 161.67, it should be exceeded by 15 points before Jan 19th expiration (see Fib extension tool), taking the Jan 170P to a valuation of 35+, for about 12-15X returns. Note: With a holiday shortened week ahead I don't expect any market drama for at least a week. Accordingly, there should be no rush into this new trade, but if there is even a hint of "hard down" -- you know what to do.
