The market is coming off of the same pattern, cycle, and oscillator highs that it had on three prior occasions in 2022, leading to 15-20% declines into cycle lows near the bottom of the 13 month trend channel shown on this SPX chart. Note also the independent charts, "Guest Charts - Hard Down Into Late January," included at the bottom of this update, both of which are forecasting hard down into late January. SPX I've taken the liberty to forecast the approximate and expected price level as of Jan 20th option expiration in a projected Wave 3 circle on the chart, i.e., somewhere between 3100-3300 on or before the third Friday in January. It being a time and place where a Wave 3 at multiple degrees of trend should be unfolding, that circle may more properly be expected to be under the trend channel than just inside it. We shall see. Jan 5 - Feb 24: 4807-4114 = -14.4% Mar 30 - Jun 17: 4612-3655 = -20.7% Aug 16 - Oct 13: 4325-3575 = -17.3% Dec 1 - Jan 20: 4087-3270* = -20.0% (*projected) TRADE MANAGEMENT - Premium Option Portfolio With the addition of new IYR Puts at the close of trading on Friday, the Premium Trading Service is carrying the following Open positions into January 20th option expiration. I expect that new positions likely in, VXX/UVXY, and/or QQQ, to be added before the end of this year. As for TSLA, it has been wise to back off of buying any new calls for the past six months. That day is still ahead and 2025 LEAPS are still on my shopping list, but the strike price keeps coming down, while the profit potential is bordering on exponential. Just not yet. ADDITIONAL CHARTS & INDICATORS QQQ Note: 32 pt QQQ drop from Sep 16th options expiration into mid-October low. A similarly sized move again would price QQQ around 230-240 in early-to-mid January. IWM PRO Service IWM Trade IYR Guest Charts - Hard Down Into Late January SPX % Bulls Nenner Research (Cycles)
