This morning's Opening VIX gap-up of 5% needs to pick up some momentum here, but not much - just enough to break out of the 3-month long downward trend channel, above $21.00. VIX - Daily VIX - Hourly: No Buy trigger until price breaks through - it's coming. VIX Buy Pending on any price move above $21.00 Option: VIX Mar 22nd $25C (currently 1.50-1.55) Target: VIX = 35-60; $25C = 10-35 Stop: 50% Trailing The Big Picture Apart from the VIX Buy-Pending there is still the Intermediate Term Big Picture scenario that is best described as the stock market being on the precipice of steep decline to new 2022-2023 lows across all major averages. This pattern represents the single best trading opportunity in our option universe and whether it is in index ETF puts (IWM,SPY, QQQ) or volatility calls (VIX/VXX/UVXY) we do not want to miss this next leg down. The Fed meeting one week from today is the most likely time target so whatever oscillations take place leading up to Feb 1st should pale in comparison to the aftermath. Anything other than a hard drop below our key levels will bring its own trading opportunities, something we can address as needed in the weeks ahead. Speaking of which: TSLA - Earnings out after today's close. Tesla plans to spend $3.6 billion more on battery and truck manufacturing in Nevada The coming run back to all time highs is based in relevant part of the Cybertruck, its 1.25 million pre-orders, and full production by mid-2024. Let's add this battery and truck manufacturing facility and all of its growth implications on top of all of that and will be selecting 2025 LEAPS with this new news in mind. TSLA has to get past today's earnings and any price fallout from the 40% run up in price over the past three weeks. The most bullish scenario would be for us to be buying those LEAPS at higher prices than they are now, in the hours before earnings. Note on the chart above how price fell post earnings for every quarter shown. Will it be different this time? Next earnings: Late April.
