The stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of the July 4th holiday. When it reopens next Tuesday there will be only nine trading sessions left in the July 15th options expiration. That is plenty of time for a Wave 3 down event to ignite, pumping volatility into any left over July 15th options. The big Wave 3 down may have already started, or it will be delayed by a week or two. If the latter, we will want to be moving from July into August with index puts early next week. Tuesday's Open will have a lot to say about if and when to roll those July positions, or, if stress is your enemy, just do it today or tomorrow. We've nailed the big picture pattern recognition trade, it's the detailed timing that is the tricky part. Come Labor Day when we are looking back at our summer bear market performance we don't to regret running out of time on any one position. Elliott Wave Charts IWM 2-Day This IWM 2-Day chart sets out a series of Wave 1-2 that are indicating a deep Wave 3 decline though July and August. The expectation is for at least one triggering of trading halts during this Wave 3 event, with multiple stoppages over the course of any one week possible. This is the "Big Picture" pattern for which we are holding various July, August and/or September index put option positions. If Wave 3 isn't clearly and unambiguously in control next week, we will need to begin to roll July expiration capital into Aug/Sep as early as next Tuesday, Just as it does with life, time trumps money. QQQ Daily SPX 120 Min AAPL 45 Min Bitcoin 4 hr Bitcoin should be watched over the long weekend. The implication of the wave count is that there is still a Wave 5 of 5* coming and if BTC makes new lows under $17,500, the termination of Wave 5 could be under $10,000, and that would not bode well for next Tuesday's Dow Open. *Which would be Bitcoin's best buying opportunity since the Covid low of March 13, 2020 @ $3,838.
