From the Dec 9 Weekend Update, "TESLA & Cybertruck" : "Getting right to my main focus, TSLA has 2 million pre-orders for Cybertruck and for every one that gets fulfilled or cancelled, once this vehicle hits the streets of America, expect a new order to replace the fulfilled or cancelled preorder. What does this mean for TSLA's market cap? "It means $4 billon in income for 2024 and upward to $30 billion in income looking ahead to 2025-2027. Adding that monster income to current income will push the market cap and stock price up about 10 fold, i.e., from $243 to close to $2400. Will it be a straight line? Eventually, but for now we can still see a dip to the November 2023 lows just under $200. If so, the next Trend Model buy after breaking below $200 is a Buy, Buy, Buy across the board in all time frames. The real race will be to see if the Cybertruck Effect takes hold first and a break above $250 will be the first indication Cybertruck is winning, while above $300 seals the deal." At that time TSLA was trading at $243, today it's above $260. From its $194 October low the shares are up 35% in about two months. I've redrawn the Fibonacci extension projections using high/low prices on a weekly time frame to take into full account that brutal October dip. Below is a refreshed TSLA longer term chart with the new Fib forecast heading into 2024-2025. The fundamentals that support these technicals are addressed in the linked article at the bottom of this update with Ron Baron and Cathie Wood weighing in on their own price forecasts. TSLA Weekly From left to right, this longer term chart view begins with our "Game Changer" thesis from November, 2019 and follows through to what is shaping up to be a critical launch toward full production of Cybertruck into the 4th quarter of 2024, or into the first half of 2025. This will coincide with TSLA reaching a $1T market cap and double that by late 2025 (about $600-700 share). Starting 2024 with two million Cybertruck pre-orders, late 2025 will see the majority of those pre-orders still on hold, waiting for production to catch-up. That's just for one product of this company and it partially explains the Fibonacci extension forecast near the right axis of the chart, a run to $300 to $800 and that's just for starters. Accordingly, calls are in order to take advantage of the Cybertruck era for TSLA, which coincidentally kicks off our Stock of Year, 2024 discussion with this mid-week TSLA Update. There will be lots more to come with the key level being a close above $300 which will likely trigger new long and intermediate term call purchases (see Jan 2025 LEAPS table below). TSLA Premium Service Calls from 2023 Buy Signals The late March 2023 calls were up as much as 163% before coming crashing down in the October dip. That dip led to a fresh buy signal in mid-November which is currently up nicely @ +33% as the shares are running into the $260's. I rate both positions as "Buys" so long as TSLA remains above $240. Even if that level gets taken out, we will wait for the next new Buy Signal and go back in. A LEAP for every sized account: "The journey begins. No one misses this ship; no one gets left behind." A. H. Good Read from Nov 21, 2023: "Tesla Stock 2030 Forecast: Can It Reach $1,500? Excerpt: "Meanwhile, even as Tesla might not be able to sell 20 million cars annually by 2030, its long-term forecast looks bullish. Ron Baron expects the stock to hit $1,500 by 2030, while Cathie Wood - who’s arguably the biggest Tesla bull - has set a base case 2027 target price of $2,000 on Tesla. Even her bear case target price is $1,400, while the bull case target price is $2,500." Good View from Dec 20, 2023 Cybertruck Sales Projections "One of the most bad-ass products we've ever seen"
