The Big Picture Before we get to TSLA, a look at the big picture is in order. Charts of SPY, IWM and QQQ all turned from bearish to neutral back to bearish in the past five trading days, with the weekly chart on both the SPY and QQQ putting in lower highs and lower lows. This doesn't in and of itself spell bear market, but it is a step in that direction and we need to be cognizant of that step going into the first week of February. One clue going forward could be interest rates and the weekly pattern shown below in the 10 Year US Treasury yield. TNX Higher interest rates could usher in a market debacle and do so quickly, sparring no stocks, not even TSLA. The recent breakout is suggesting as soon as this blip down is over, new highs are coming in interest rates, which means a speed bump at best, and stock market debacle at worst. QQQ Daily Key levels surround the daily lows of last week: 521.19 (Fri) 518.21 (Thur) 516.90 (Wed) 511.78 (Tue) 510.15 (Mon). QQQ closed the week @ 522.29, just off its daily low, which is also the highest daily low of the week. I will monitoring closely in the days ahead and will be getting progressively bearish should these respective lows get taken out. The key low of the week, 510.15 has to hold, or its a third wave down, as shown on this chart, targeting 463, or worse. Look for a Special Alert on any day one or more of those lows gets broken, paying special attention to the key lows trendline shown on the QQQ 30 minute chart below, as breaking that support would be a logical place to be adding calls on SQQQ (see chart below) and/or puts on SPY/IWM. QQQ 30 Minute SQQQ Hourly Best bet for downside leverage = SQQQ Feb 21st $30C Focus on TSLA The CEO Speaks The headline takeaway coming out of Tesla's earnings call last Wednesday came from Elon Musk and his projection of market cap (and via some simple division, share price) over the next three years. His projection is that Tesla will be worth more than the closest five companies in terms of market value....COMBINED! From Investors.com: Taking that projection a bit further, let's do some math: Top FIve Companies Ranked By Market Capitalization AAPL 3.6T MSFT 3.3T NVDA 3.0T AMZN 2.5T GOOG 2.4T Total = 14.8T That adds up to $14.8 Trillion. I asked Grog to translate that into share price, assuming the current shares outstanding @ 3.17 billion. Here is Grok's calculation: If Tesla's market capitalization were $14.8 trillion with 3.17 billion shares outstanding, the share price would be approximately 4,668.77 USD per share. Therefore: Elon Musk is projecting a 10X increase in share price over the next 3 years! ----- Just a CEO bragging about company prospects? Think again. In the United States, there are specific regulations under securities law that govern what CEOs and other company insiders can say about their company's stock, particularly regarding projections. Here's a breakdown: Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD): This SEC rule prohibits selective disclosure of material nonpublic information to certain individuals or entities. If a CEO discusses stock price projections or other material information, they must ensure this information is made available to the public simultaneously or very soon thereafter to avoid giving anyone an unfair advantage. SEC Rules Against Market Manipulation: (bold emphasis mine) CEOs must avoid statements that could be considered manipulative or misleading. Making unfounded or speculative comments about future stock performance could be seen as manipulating the market, which is illegal under various SEC rules. Insider Trading Laws: While not directly about commenting, insiders must be cautious as their comments might inadvertently reveal insider information. If they possess material nonpublic information, they are restricted from trading or tipping others based on that information. Guidance from Legal and Compliance Teams: Most companies have strict internal policies or guidelines about what can be said in public statements or during earnings calls. These are often crafted with input from legal counsel to comply with securities laws. Forward-Looking Statements: If CEOs do comment on projections, they often use safe harbor provisions for "forward-looking statements." This involves cautionary language that future results might differ materially from current projections, which provides some legal protection but doesn't eliminate all risk. In practice, CEOs are usually advised to be very careful with comments about stock price specifically. They might discuss business forecasts or economic conditions affecting the company but are generally cautious about direct commentary on stock prices due to the legal implications. Bottom Line TSLA/TSLL calls will be a major focus of this service throughout the rest of 2025 and into 2026. We will not be buying simply because of Musk's projections, in fact, we will be buying solely because of our pattern recognition tools. However, we now have projections by both Elon Musk ($4,668 by 2028) and Cathie Wood ($2,600 by 2030) along with our reliable, proven technical tools to guide our risk:reward calculations going forward. AGGRESSIVE would be an appropriate term to describe our future trades. Stand-by for our next tranche of TSLA/TSLL calls. TSLA Still waiting for more conclusive evidence that Wave (iv) has ended. It looks from this Daily chart that another dip into Fib retracement zone (shaded rectangle) is needed. Look for a powerful spike up out of zone to mark the continuation of Wave iii (circle) of 3, to much higher prices later this year. Note the false breakout on Friday @ 419.99. That high has created our next trigger for adding-on and getting all-in on TSLA, i.e., a close above $420, any day. Look for a Special Alert with new call option picks on any day is moving in that direction. If not yet Long TSLA or TSLL calls, wait for that trigger. ----- TSLA becomes one of a handful of companies and stocks that offer extraordinary returns both from a buy and hold perspective and from a shorter-term trading strategy. We can throw PLTR in the same category, but this weekend, before Musk's prediction is lost in the oblivion of back and forth daily price movements and the ad nauseam social media hype and hate, this all about TSLA and becoming laser focused on when to buy, when to go all in, and when to dodge bullets over the next three years. Last year showed us how much we could make from the combination of technical analysis, pattern recognition and dumb luck (see 2024 TSLA trading here), now imagine three years of same staring at us straight ahead. Laser focused, indeed! ----- Blue Line Trading Buy & Hold Portfolio Note: No new B&H picks since November, 2020. As soon as something with more potential than TSLA and PLTR identifies itself, I'll add it. ----- Active Option Portfolios ----- PRO Service Premium Service
