From Saturday's Weekend Update "Absent such a sharp turnaround, enjoy the run in TSLA and TWLO. If the former can take out last week's high above $217.25, then $230-250 beckons, and once there, a trade above $300 before Sep 15th expiration transforms from dreaming to: Pending." On Monday TSLA took out last week's highs and today, Wednesday, it reached into the $230's. Both the shorter term Sep 2023 and longer term Jan 2025 calls are doing well, but the best is yet to come. Premium Service TSLA call positions as of mid-day Wednesday: Both the long term Jan 2025 calls and shorter-term Sep 2023 calls are near their best levels since entry. The Intermediate Term Trading Model is remains on its March Buy Signal and the EW structure is pointing toward $300 by Sep 2023 monthly expiration. TSLA Daily Trend Model With the Sep 2023 calls already reaching up over 326%, keeping a 50% trailing stop locks in a 160% gain. The longer term calls are not quite as price sensitive since there is so much time still remaining until expiration. Nonetheless, a mental stop at break-even makes sense as it reduces risk to zero in an uncertain macro environment. If you haven't figured it out yet, be assured we will be covering TSLA closely on a daily basis and it's not going anywhere near its old highs without us fully on board with multiple call positions. The Big Picture - Deteriorating Drill down to the components While not a strictly accurate market timing device, this inching over toward Extreme Greed is a red flag against being very long anything in this environment and to be especially mindful of our stops on any calls. Once an intermediate turn down triggers there should be plenty of time to enter new short positions. Of particular interest is the potential for a mega spike in volatility. VIX 2-day Buy Signal Pending QQQ Daily Reversal @ Fib 61.8% The Q's are leading the market down today and this is beginning to look interesting as the turn down is occurring right at a key Fibonacci retracement level. The entire counter-trend rally up from the Oct 13, 2022 Wave (1) low at QQQ 254 may have ended with a short-lived spike above the Wave (2) channel over the past few trading sessions. If so, QQQ is headed back below 254 in the weeks to months ahead. It won't take long.
