The SPY Sell we have been tracking for the past week looks to be close to triggering as it nears today's close. VIX is also close to triggering Long. The set-up is for a decline into Sep-Oct lows, making the break of SPY 450 only the beginning of a multi-week decline. We don't have to go all-in on day one...unless day one turns into a rout. SPY Intermediate Term Trading Model SPY: Intermediate Term SELL on a close below 450.00 Options: Buy to Open SPY Sep 15th $450P (7.10-7.15) OR Oct 20th $430P (5.15-5.20) Targets: SPY <400; $450P >50.00 and 430P >30 Stops: 50% Trailing VIX: Intermediate Term Buy: Pending Option Trades Early adopters: VIX Sep 20th $20C (1.65-1.70); Otherwise wait for formal Intermediate Term Buy Signal in days ahead HEADS-UP! US 2 Year Yield - On a fresh Long-Term Buy US T-Notes are knocking on 5% yields again. Six Month T-Bills are at 5.5%. This EW pattern is suggesting that the next breakout will be a Wave 3 and take yields up north of 8%. Can you just imagine what 8% short-term rates will do to our economy? To our Bond markets? To our stock markets? Wave 3 down at mulitple degrees of trend - doesn't even begin to describe the chaos. Monitoring for a breakout....
