September is historically/statistically the worst performing month for the stock market. [Historical Monthly Returns]. Last week we were focused on a close below SPY 450 to initiate September put positions and today, with this Saturday update, I am carrying those instructions forward for at least another week, if not month. For my own account, I am using a break of Thursday's lows to trigger my own new short positions, but officially the positions go on any day SPY closes below 450. Thursday's SPY low was 451.55. Your choice. SPY Intermediate Term Trading Model FAQ: If September has the best chances of being a down month, what is the hurry to get short in August? I'm borrowing (or stealing, depending on the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Fair Use Doctrine - legal scholars, see: Google v Oracle, 539 U.S. 2021) this chart published Friday night by Elliott Wave International: Notable is that the Put Call ratio is rolling over, same exact pattern seen at every intermediate and/or major top on the past 18 months. We don't want to use any one indicator in and of itself to dictate a trade, but the accumulation of pattern recognition Sell Signals is again at a point that cannot be ignored. A break of a key level, as set out in the our standing instructions to buy Sep 15th $450P on a SPY close below 450, tips the odds strongly in the direction of an immediate and potentially severe sell-off. In this case, the SPY puts will just be the beginning of a more aggressive short position, one that will quickly add VIX calls to the mix in the days to follow. QQQ Intermediate Term Trading Model PRO Subscribers: Review Shorter-term Pending QQQ & VIX Trades TSLA We ignore the macro environment as much as possible in TSLA call management. However, Friday's rally notwithstanding, TSLA is currently under the influence of Trading Model Sell Signals in both its Intermediate and Short-Term models. Focus here is on the next buying opportunity which should come along around mid- August to September, or, if Friday's rebound continues, as early as next week. TSLA Intermediate Term Trading Model TSLA is not only on Trading Model Sells, it is in a post-earnings window that usually leads to intermediate term lows and excellent buying opportunities.
