I bought a few new options for myself on Friday, just because I wanted to - no key levels broken, no new wave counts, no trend model signals - just a gut feel that a top is in and a major, major top at that. If we see a new round of all time highs in the hours or days ahead, I was wrong will exit with 25% losses. So, for what its worth, my two personal trades from Friday: SPY Jan 19th $460P @ 2.72 (closed @ 2.33) IWM Jan 19th $190P @ 1.65 (closed @ 1.86) Additionally and watching closely, but just haven't pulled the trigger yet: QQQ Jan 19th $390P (closed @ 2.22) With 35 days to go to Jan 19th expiration I'll keep a tight leash on these and I expect any additional "system" picks forthcoming may go out to Feb 16th (64 days) giving this market additional time to come to it senses. What's Next? With a week to go before Christmas I expect to be either doubling up or exiting these new trades depending on how the market proceeds in the days ahead. On the charts below I've identified key levels the breaking of which would all but confirm a new leg down is starting. Truth be told, this action is not completely random in nature, it is based to a very large extent on massively bullish sentiment from the general public and in particular, option traders (see F&G option chart below), who take the Feds action from last week as some kind of all clear signal to buy, buy, buy as interest rates have topped and stocks are about to ignite to the upside. No, they haven't, and no, their not. Extreme Fear & Greed Index (Link) Bearish, but not all at extreme levels: Problematic for much further gains - four of seven indicators are at Extreme Greed levels: Key Level Charts My charts this week are shown without wave counts and trend model arrows, but I'm including some Key Levels that represent a total retracement of Wednesday's FOMC out-of-the-blue rally across major indices. Suffice it to say that if the market gives back those gains it's curtain time on Wall Street. If and when those key levels get taken out, we will revisit EW and Fibonacci downside targets. Also if and when those levels are taken out, expect a slew of new option recommendations to seize upon any downside price action - although you can always start with those cheap Jan puts set out above. DJI IWM SPY QQQ TSLA Corner From last weekend's update: "This weekly line chart is forecasting a 5th wave leg up into 1st qtr of 2024 as part of a third wave (circle) Primary degree drive into mid-year, somewhere between $350-500. This fits well with the anticipated first year roll-out of Cybertruck. It will pay to be aggressive as TSLA starts taking out key levels to the upside and cautious if it does not. In other words, buy price strength, starting with a breakout above $250 and especially above $300." TSLA closed both Thursday and Friday above $250, thus triggering an entry for anyone without the TSLA March 2024 calls. Here is the initial Nov 15th position performance to date: Based on this chart, we will want to add above $300: Noteworthy are the two next forecasted targets, $395 and then $510. If I am wrong about a market top occurring around current levels, TSLA could be on the cusp of an historic price run, one surpassing the first wave up from the late 2019 "Game Changer" lows. Because I never get tired of reminding myself, TSLA ran from the (split adjusted) low $20's to over $400 and our options made some subscribers rich, including the Jan 2021 $420C that was up over 10,000%. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes - Mark Twain. Ergo, take all TSLA call recommendations seriously, especially with Cybertrucks rolling out. I'll have some longer term recommendations as soon as Wave 3 up is confirmed, i.e., a price run above $300, likely taken from the Jan 2025 table below. TSLA March 2024 Calls TSLA Jan 2025 Calls
