Last week's lows are still in tact, so the bottom falling out of the stock market before April 14th expiration is still only possible, not yet probable. Starting tomorrow there are only seven trading sessions to go to April expiration as the market is closed Good Friday (April 15th). Above 35,500 the Dow sets its sights on new all time high. Below 34,500 (last week's low) look for an acceleration down. The wave count (read: pattern recognition) shown below is what makes the most sense to me at the moment. Only a break above 35,500 changes my labeling. This wave structure is most bearish insofar as it implies that a 3rd wave is beginning to unfold. Wave 1 was 4,800 pts (13%) and suggests Wave 3 will take the Dow down below the Feb 24th lows. I've included the Fibonacci extension targets on the far right of the chart. April ---> May: Roll-over Put candidate IWM May 20th $200P (5.00-5.10)
