Bottom Line The precarious nature of geopolitical themes keeps me wanting to have downside bets on the general market. Added to that, the entire Semiconductor complex looks so close to breaking down I that I am already lining up leveraged bets to the downside should a confirmed break manifest in the days ahead. Expect to be one or two days late to that party, just to be sure that the initial breakdown is nothing but a fake out prior to a new leg higher. Premium Options Portfolio Notes SLV - It's September expiration for a reason, it may take a new low to finish off the YTD decline. After that, it's triple digits for Silver and SLV. USO - We're entitled to at least one big winner a month and USO has been a great trade. Use that trailing stop to exit up to half, letting the rest ride. QQQ - I am reluctant to exit the QQQ puts, even if the stop is hit. Nonetheless, if hit, exit and await new entries to the downside if and when a breakdown occurs. MSTR - The stop was hit at +237%, which is why we have a 50% trailing stop once an option is up 100%. Holding a small, "just in case," leftover position is a lot less painful knowing at least 80% of position was exited with over a triple. IBIT - As with MSTR, this should be down to a handful of leftover puts, with most of the position exited with over a triple. Learn this trading rule and reap the rewards. Semiconductor Index (SMH) I've taken off my EW labels that show the rally up from late March as a completed Wave 5. That's because there is a chance that the dip today is the end of a Wave 4 and the REAL Wave 5 is yet to come. However, breaking the trendline up from April 1st is a strong suggestion that Wave 4 was in fact over in late March and we are at the beginning of a deep dive at least back to that April 1st low. Nonetheless, if such a decline is imminent, QQQ puts are the quick and easy way to participate. Puts on semiconductor indices and/or individual stocks are very expensive. Why? Because everyone's looking at that same broken trendline as we are. As Joe Granville is famous for observing, "If its obvious, its obviously wrong." Ergo: What a game, eh?
