One outstanding characteristic of this stock market is the narrow breadth accompanying new highs in the Dow, S&P and now Nasdaq. If you are reading the financial press, this narrowness in strength is everywhere, including recent citing of the now famous Hindenburg Omen, a signal which just flashed a few days ago on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). On an historical perspective, this has always come in advance of a precipitous decline, anywhere from 25-50% from the ultimate top tick. The problem is that historically, in such conditions the market can continue to rise or chop sideways-to-higher for months before heading down in earnest. One thing is for sure: Any decline of that magnitude, outside of an overnight news-event crash, will be signaled well in advance by our Trend Models. If they all turn red with breaches of Key Level support, assume the worst case scenario for a bear market is unfolding. Going forward, I expect to be monitoring our DJI, SPY, QQQ and IWM Trend Models closely, looking for a consensus that the whole ball of wax has turned down and opportunities abound on the short side. Looking out into the second half of this year, it is this market turn down that stands out as the most attractive trading opportunity on the horizon. It's no longer Gold or Bitcoin, but a bear market that we need to be looking out for. The only exception is Tesla, which broke out of its sideways channel today and despite the warning cited above, is exhibiting a bullish technical pattern that cannot be ignored. TSLA TSLA Jan 2025 Calls From Apr 29 Buy Signal If still Long these calls, move stop (exit) to any TSLA close below $175 TSLA - Attractive Intermediate Term Calls - New Capital All of these calls are attractive candidates, 205 days to expiration. Big Picture - Key Level Support - Major Indices DJI SPY QQQ IWM Big Picture Trade Management We will be adding Sep 20th puts on breakdowns only. DJI
