NVDA reports quarterly earnings today after market close. This has become a prime market moving event with the added potential of a pattern recognition trade when earnings comes while NVDA is in a steep uptrend. Take a close look at the chart below, because if recent history is about to repeat, there may be a trade coming as early as Thursday. NVDA - Uptrend into earnings: If NVDA is trending up into earnings, no matter what earnings or post-earnings forecasts may be, a subsequent price breakdown below channel and NVDA is at high risk to take a 20% or worse hit. August 28, 2024: NVDA $126---> $101 (-20%) Sep 6th. November 20, 2024: NVDA $146--->$87 (-40%) Apr 7th. February 26, 2025: $NVDA $128--->$87 (-32%) Apr 7th. May, 2025: $NVDA $135---> To be determined. For a short trade (Long NVDA Puts) to be triggered we need to see: (1) An uptrend going into earnings, followed by, (2) a price breakdown of the uptrend channel in the days after earnings. Target is a 30% decline within 30 days, i.e., NVDA declines to $100-110 before July monthly options expiration. For this trade to be triggered NVDA must break down below the current uptrend channel in the days following May 28th earnings report. NVDA Hourly Trigger For impatient traders looking to get a head start and not wanting to wait for Daily price breakdown, trigger based on hourly breakdown, or about below $130. Prime option candidates: Note: Assuming a breakdown post earnings, all prices will be higher than indicated in the tables below. NVDA Jun Puts Three weeks to expiration. NVDA July Puts Seven weeks to expiration.
