Note for Friday's Market Open: "The three-week-long US government shutdown has halted most official economic data releases, leaving the Federal Reserve with just one major indicator to guide its next monetary decision before the end of October, the September Consumer Price Index (CPI). "Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed it will make a one-time exception to publish the CPI report on Friday, even as other agencies, such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau, are shut." My Analysis Why would they be making an, "exception," publishing the CPI Report this upcoming Friday? Could this month's CPI number be such good news on inflation that it will be perceived to be supportive of a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates? They want it out because such news could easily ignite a massive market rally, or so goes conventional Fed cause and effect deductive reasoning. Not so fast, Grasshopper. The past few weeks has seen Bitcoin incur a mini-crash, dropping 15% from its all time high. This was followed by Gold and Silver dropping about 10% each. Is it now equities turn to falter? A CPI Report, good or bad, is a news event where its not the perceived effect on the economy that matters. Instead, the key takeaway is how the market reacts to said report...good or bad. Stand by for anything over the next few days, and be ready to pounce on any new trade ideas to be forthcoming. Whatever the market reaction may be, there's a Nov/Dec option strategy to go along with it, "good or bad." Performance Table: Debacle in Gold & Silver, Continues Performance Table Note: This table is updated mid-day today from what was reported in yesterday's Special Alert. Note all positions have now violated their respective 50% trailing stops. The average return for these four positions being exited, true to the 50% trailing rule, is +206% per trade and that's not counting the massive gains taken at October expiration. Now, let's do it again, wherever those trades may come from. See below for potential candidates. QID A close > $22.00 constitutes a breakout of descending channel and a run over next 30 days to $25-$30 QID Nov 21st $22C A QID close > $22 (currently @ $21.50) opens door for a run to $25, for a 3X - 5X return in next four weeks. UVXY 180 Minute UVXY Nov 21st $12C A UVXY close > $12.00 sets up a run to $15 and possibly the beginning of a spike into the $20's. I still like the Nov 21st $12C, and/or $15C to maximize return.
