In last weekend's update reference was made to Bitcoin and the potential for a cascading decline in value over the intermediate to long term: Key word: Potential. Looking at the technical picture, Bitcoin is tracing out a bear flag and that will lead to an impulsive leg down sometime in the next few weeks to months. Less likely is a breakout higher, back over $80-$100K over that same "weeks-to-months." As a strategy, my best bet based on current patterns is to the downside, going out to June with just-out-of-the-money IBIT puts. BTC 2-Day Note on this 2-Day chart how the path of least resistance is down; how far down is speculative, but a deep dive is possible, if not probable. In any case, it's worth a small bet to the downside. If instead, Bitcoin breaks upward, we can always switch gears. IBIT 2-Day IBIT is our vehicle for options and in this case, puts just out of the money. IBIT June Puts The June 18th $36 Puts allow 120 days for IBIT to drop in a 5th wave to the mid-$20's, commensurate with a BTC decline to below $40K. SPY - Weekly Also from the Weekend Update, this SPY-Weekly chart. It has two more trading days to go before a new data point is put in, either above or below the 8 Week EMA and possibly setting direction for the Intermediate Term. Oh yea, there is a huge inflation number due out before the Open on Friday (PCE) Any bets? Late Edition: QQQ 180 Minute QQQ could be on the cusp of a breakdown, basis this shorter-term pattern.
