Today was all about the FOMC and Inflation numbers. It is a news-event day, meaningless in the grand scheme, so I am reluctant to make much out of it. In terms of trading, we a stubborn IWM that only teases on the downside and a most intriguing Bitcoin, that has still yet to breakout above $72K. Unless and until it does, we stand aside with only 1/2 position in the Sep calls -- unless stopped by a 50% decline. If out, stay out until $72K is seen, await further instructions. GLD This is the only GLD position left over from March entries. At this point, holding to option expiration or taking the remaining profits and running are both acceptable trade management alternatives. ------- Bitcoin ------- If $72K, then $86-105K...but that is a big IF. Look for new BITO Sep call recommendation if Bitcoin exceeds $72K. ------- DJI ------- What was initially considered "good" inflation numbers worked their magic for a +350 pt open on the Dow, to be given all back in a three-hour reversal. Other indices are holding their gains, but this is not a bullish chart by any stretch of the imagination. Pay close attention to the DJI Key Level, still about 1,000 pts below current levels. If broken on a closing basis we go all in on the short side, including but not limited to Jan 2025 SH calls. If not, we continue looking for special situations. ------- IWM ------- IWM broke below 200 on Monday, but news-driven spike today should have stopped and/or cancelled any new positions. Stand aside until further notice. ------- TSLA ------- "ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value of $2,600 per share in 2029. The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, respectively, are approximately $3,100 and $2,000 per share, as shown below. This research update presents ARK’s open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 45 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company and its stock." Link to Article
