It has been a difficult week for trading as spikes and mid-day reversals have been the rule, triggering new trades only to see prices find support and spike the other way. Eventually, I expect new lows and soon, but its beginning to look llike March expiration will not be our position friendly. A lot can happen between now and then, but we have to consider moving our shorter-term positioning into April, unless prices turn down and soon. Bitcoin Perhaps the biggest surprise has been Bitcoin, with an impressive rally against our mid-February short position. Despite the move against our Jun put position, the loss has yet to exceed -50%, so we are still holding the Jun $38P. Continue to do so, exiting only if position hits the -50% hard stop. A typically painful "C" wave rally to shake out bearish positions before next impulsive leg lower. QQQ The QQQ set-up remains intermediate term bearish, but it will take a close below yesterday's intraday low @ 592 to confirm the hard down we have been expecting. A break now below 600 and I'm pound-the-table bearish. IWM The same can be said for IWM, requiring a close below yesterday's low print of 253.30 to open the trap door to 240-230. Any decline now to below 255 sets up the net leg lower. Strategy After Friday there will only be two weeks left in March expiration. Accordingly, unless we get the requisite decline in these indices before then, April will become our best bet for capturing mega gains in index puts. Premium Service Active Options Gold & Silver The options table above shows the worth of keeping small positions even if the trailing 50% profit stop is hit, as calls in SLV and GLD bought back in December still show outstanding percentage gains. We paid a little more in early December to go out 4 months to March expiration but in the long run, it more than paid off, despite extreme volatility in these markets. Upon the next breakout in GLD and SLV, I will once again go out three-to-four months, from whenever that next breakout occurs. Stand-by. GLD Both GLD and SLV are neutral, pending completion of their respective Wave 4 corrections. New highs in both are expected by summer, but a dip first to lower trend channel support is at least a 50-50 probability, i.e., not great odds for taking new positions...not just yet.
