The clock is running out on both March option expiration and the counter-trend rally that has taken stock indices higher over the past 4-5 trading sessions. The next major move is lower and it is imminent. I'd like to see at least one hard down day to confirm this scenario, but am willing to accept a reversal from highs to lows during any trading session to trigger adding to short positions. The time is right for such price action now, tomorrow and Friday. Be ready. Meanwhile, three Active Options positions expire on Friday, so let's deal with this situation right now: March 21st Expiration (prices shown as of an hour into Wednesday's trading) These three March expirations go off the board on Friday. Some if not all, of these positions have been closed via 50% trailing stops. Even if ignoring any stops, these Feb 21st entries are holding up well, with 400% and 200% gains in SQQQ calls and IWM puts respectively into this morning's trading. We want to maintain a short the market strategy going into April expiration, adding on any market weakness or via Special Alerts, using these April 17th tables and in particular, the highlighted strikes: SQQQ & IWM April 17th Calls in SQQQ April 17th Puts in IWM PLTR Despite this stock being down 33% from its Feb 19, 2025 high @ $125, the Mar $65C call we bought on Nov 6, 2024@ 3.40 is still up over 450%. Eventually, we will roll into new PLTR calls, just not yet. PLTR Daily I'm not convinced this correction is over, neither in time and/or price...which are the critical two factors when trading options. Discussion With the expected retracement of the Feb-Mar impulse leg down in the stock market, each day draws the resumption of the downtrend closer. As the charts below suggest, unless and until last week's market lows are firmly taken out, we can't be sure the retracement is over, or if even it is a retracement. Nonetheless, if my EW theory is right and a third wave at multiple degrees of trend is about to unfold, we are expecting massive profits from our short positions, i.e., calls on SQQQ and puts on IWM and/or SPY. If wrong, we will switch gears soon enough, but being wrong is a low probability contingency, as of mid-March, 2025. The next window for a crash will be October, so its not a "now or never," kind of cycle - just probably now - so we will position our trading accordingly, while already sitting on sizable profits from our Feb 21st stock index trades. QQQ Hourly This very short term view of QQQ doesn't allow for much higher prices before the bottom falls out of the index, but it is possible. Taking out the the wave (b) low @ 466 would be a strong indication that the next leg down has begun. Taking out the Wave (i) low at 472 is our first clue its happening. IWM 180 Minute Despite a few days of rally, broader market is this close to total breakdown.
