The theme this week has been caution, in front of NVDA earnings, which is a proxy on AI which extends to most of Nasdaq, which along with the poor showing in Bitcoin's failure to leave $100K in its rear view mirror. In fact, unless and until BTC $100K is captured again, look for caution surrounding all things speculative. By the time the market opens Thursday the NVDA fallout will be known, bullish or bearish, including points in-between. The price patterns discussed over the weekend and into Monday remain bearish, with periodic respites only minimally effective in tempering worse case implications. This too shall pass, but not until a low of at least intermediate term consequence is convincingly established. Without a strong tailwind from technology, from Bitcoin, even from Gold and/or Interest Rates, there's little bullish edge to prop up stocks, leaving risk to the downside as the most compelling trading opportunity as the calendar flips into March. Nonetheless, as is shown below (FXI), there is one pattern recognition signal for the long side worth keeping on our near-term radar. Stock Indices QQQ 45 Minute (Short-term) Despite the failure of immediate downside follow-through, this continues to be a bearish set-up. Maybe it will be NVDA earnings, or maybe a bad inflation report, or something out of left field, but this just doesn't feel like a bottom has been put in, or anything close to one. It's easier to run a business like this in a bull market, so I'm hoping to be wrong, but hope is not what pays the bills. SPY Daily (Intermediate Term) If you're thinking this looks even worse than QQQ, I agree. It's either a completed "dip" or the beginning of a larger leg down. Taking out yesterday's low (589.56) will clear any doubt. IWM 120 Minute SQQQ 45 Minute Still targeting mid $30's, minimum. Core Short Option Positions FXI: Bullish Set-Up Close > $37.50 Longer term subscribers should recognize this Wave 5 Buy Signal (Pending) which is a close above $37.50 away from triggering a move into the mid-$40's. Do we care that this is a China Large Cap ETF? No, we only care about the pattern, a 67% win rate, together with relatively cheap and nicely leveraged calls: On FXI close above $37.50 - Buy Apr 17th $38C
