The market will be closed next Monday, July 5th, in celebration of Independence Day. That also means that trading will slack off going into the end of this week, especially Friday. In fact, the July 4th doldrums may have already started. TSLA: Even though Q2 earnings are still a few weeks away, Tesla will announce production/delivery numbers for Q2 during the first few days of July. In the past these numbers have moved the stock, but only as a news-event, not as a new trend or leg up or down. Earnings are more likely to affect stock movement in any meaningful way. Even then, our eyes are on the 2022-2023 prize so other than traditional price strength going into the earnings report, there is nothing to see here. Any dip would be an opportunity to buy the recommended calls on sale. On the other hand, last summer between July 4th and Labor Day, TSLA rose from $242 to $500. Bitcoin: Next short-term top due July 10th. A breakout above $40K will target old highs around $65K. The Big Picture: No changes. In summary, the Dow is signalling a bad summer for the market, but broader indexes, in particular the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are stubbornly refusing to confirm a new downtrend. Something has got to give, either the Dow is going to make an abrupt turnaround higher, or, the other indices will turn lower. If it is the latter we will be getting aggressively short with September index puts. If it is the former, i.e., a broad based summer rally, we will be aggressively adding on long positions in TSLA, PLTR and perhaps a new name or two depending on market leadership. I don't expect this bullish outcome, but it's not what I expect that matters. Key Level for Dow, no matter what the other indexes are doing, is 33,300 (see chart).
