I've done some number crunching with our PRO and Premium Option Trading this weekend and the bottom line results are worth examination. We've had some stellar trades over the past year, as well as the usual stinkers, but adding them all up and applying our simple, albeit mostly arbitrary money management rules has generated some eye opening results. Lets start with the bottom lines: Trading Period: All Expirations 2024-2025 PRO Service Trades: 69 Wins: 46 Losses 23: Win Percentage = 66.67% Average Trade (Includes all wins and losses) = +202.65% Premium Service Trades: 65 Wins: 37 Losses: 28 Winning Percentage = 56.92% Average Trade (Includes all wins and losses) = +175.69% Rules: Take all trades, exit at Expiration, or at one of two stops: Stop #1: Hard -50% from entry; Stop #2: If trade reaches +100%, exit on 50% reduction from Best Return. TOP TEN TRADES - PRO SERVICE TOP TEN TRADES - PREMIUM SERVICE THE OBVIOUS Of these top 20 trades, 15 involve just three stocks: PLTR, TSLA/TSLL and RKLB. Only two of the top 20 involve ETF's, GLD and QQQ. That's not to imply ETF's are less profitable opportunities, but it does emphatically support the ongoing mixture of trades in these services, both individual stocks and ETF's. Insofar as almost every trade is triggered similar trading patterns, it shouldn't matter what we are trading. Accordingly, going forward we are not changing a thing, same patterns, same universe of tradables, and same, "simple, albeit mostly arbitrary" money management rules. THE NOT SO OBVIOUS Most everyone here has been around for years, if not the entire lifespan of this trading service, now in its 15th year. That implies most are familiar with the types of option trades, a/k/a "bets" we take here. You don't have to use our guidelines for exits as there are a myriad of ways to trade our recommendations. I have occasionally in the past shown what pyramiding trades with no stops is capable of producing: How To Turn $1,000 Into $91,623 In Seven Months Swing Trading Options There is probably a middle ground, where mixing some money management rules...and none...will work to generate the occasional wealth creation event of a lifetime (you should see some of my email testimonials). I'll leave any further mixing and matching to personal choice. When it comes to option trading there is no one trade-risk-money management set of rules that works well for everyone, but no doubt there is a method that fits your personal temperament and style. All anyone needs is a little help with trade ideas and leverage and for that, I am at your service. CHARTS Let's start with the star of the show, PLTR, a former Stock of The Year and now in competition with TSLA for stock of the decade. PLTR This chart captures most of our best trades of 2024 in both services, as PLTR rallied from the $20's in mid-summer to $120 in mid February. One Buy and Hold January call in the Premium Service, bought on July 15, 2024, was up 1200% my mid-December, finally expiring in January 2025 at +865%. TSLA TSLA remains is a no mans land, still under the influence of a Fib retracement pattern that may or may not be complete. We added some Sep TSLL calls last week, but are awaiting a more definitive breakout to go all-in for the run to $600 and beyond. RKLB Likewise, we await a definitive breakout for a run into the low-to-mid $40's for RKLB. These shares started 2024 in the single digits and reached as high as $33 a few weeks ago. Options are inexpensive and can be leveraged for huge returns later this year. QQQ Double Top, or Breakout-Pending - I haven't a clue. DJI The Dow actually for once is providing some better tea leaves than QQQ. The two red horizontal rays mark key highs and lows and whichever one gets taken out first will be the intermediate term direction of not only the DJI but most likely the rest of the market as well. My hope is that other indices will give their own hints well before the DJI follows suit. In any case, the market is closed Monday and we will starting with Tuesday which way prices want to go. We are a little lean on option positions going into March-April, but that will change soon enough. We were a little lean last year at this time and look how that ended up (see stats above). Active Option Performance Tables PRO Service Premium Service
