There have been two significant declines in 2025, one in Feb-Apr which resulted in a 25% "dip" in Nasdaq before recovery to new highs this summer, and one more recently, during the turnover of July to August a more modest 5% "dip" which disappeared in the blink of an eye. QQQ Snapshot: QQQ in 2025 A Wave 5 into Feb-Mar, followed by an ABC correction of about 25% and then a vigorous rally into summer which can be counted as 5 waves up. What's next? At a minimum another ABC down, anywhere from 5% to 10% to 25%. With 31 days left to Sep expiration, this is enough time for outsized percentage gains in any of these QQQ puts if there is a decline similar in scope to those other 2025 break-downs. The next key break, if any, will be of the parallel trend channel support shown above, circa QQQ 560, as our last chance to buy Sep puts should this evolve into a steep decline into September. Sep QQQ Puts Buy on break-down below the parallel trend channel support shown in the QQQ chart above, below about 560. Note the returns above are off of just a 1.30% decline in QQQ today, suggesting significant returns if QQQ goes on to drop anywhere from 5% to 25% over the next four weeks. SPY Daily SPY is sitting right on channel support up from Wave 2-4 lows and a break-down now will almost certainly lead to a break-down of QQQ support described above. SPY low so far today, with 90 minutes unti the close, is 638.81.
