Monday Edit: It is Monday morning and Bitcoin is up $5k+ over the past 24 hours. It is once again knocking on the door of $50K and appears to be taking another run at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension target zone (chart below). A clean break above $52K brings $67K into range. GBTC, MSTR, RIOT and HVBTF are all ramping higher. As the gist of this white paper suggests, in the long term picture for Bitcoin it is much closer to the beginning than the end. It is no longer a question of if to get Long, it is how, how soon and how much? Bitcoin: $50K = Market Cap $1T Predictions by the two most prominent Bitcoin bulls, Micheal Saylor and Cathie Wood: MicroStrategy CEO says bitcoin will one day have $100 trillion market value even as price dives Saylor: At a market cap of $100T, Bitcoin will be worth $5M per Bitcoin. Ark's Cathie Wood explains how bitcoin could increase by $400,000 Wood: At a price of $400,000 per Bitcoin, the market cap is $8T. Two of the most successful and respected minds on Wall Street have put a price tag on Bitcoin of between $400K and $5M. On what planet are these two living? Let's ask that a different way: If one or both of them is right, how much Bitcoin will you be holding? That is the conundrum about trying to trade in and out of Bitcoin or the stocks in our crypto basket. We are back when Amazon was selling books at a loss and Bezos saw a $1.5T two decades down the road. Or when Apple sold its first computer and Steve Jobs saw an iPhone. When Tesla was an IPO at $3.80 in 2010, that Musk saw the the largest market cap auto company in the world, three times as large as its nearest competitor. It took until those three companies got noticed, got accepted by the mainstream analyst community, that their largest growth spurts began. It has taken until 2021 for the same community to take notice of Bitcoin. Saylor and Wood are considered, "Bitcoin pioneers," for unwavering confidence and support. That Tesla, Square, Grayscale, Paypal, are jumping on the train now is confirmation enough of acceptance of Bitcoin, and suggest that another disruptive transformation is at hand. Already accepting Bitcoin for payment is Home Depot, Microsoft, Overstock, Starbucks, and Whole Foods. Then there is Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, which last week filed for a direct listing (read: "IPO") on Nasdaq: "Coinbase states that it currently has “approximately 43 million retail users, 7,000 institutions, and 115,000 ecosystem partners in over 100 countries.” As of Dec. 31, 2020, the platform had executed $456 billion in trading volume since its inception and stored over $90 billion worth of assets." Coinbase initial valuation: $100 billion Looking back from either Wood or Saylor's price points, $400K or $5M, it won't matter exactly where in its volatile path up that Bitcoin was purchased, nor how far the corrections retraced, so long as it was bought...and held. CHARTS - FIBONACCI EXTENSION PRICE TARGETS The first chart below shows how the 61.8% Fib extension stopped the rally up from $28,900 dead in its tracks at $52,000. the bad news is that the rally stalled; the good news is that it stalled at the 61.8% Fib level, thus confirming the March 2020 low and Jan 8 2021 high as reliable anchors for upside projections based upon Fib extension calculations. The second chart takes the first chart several Fib extension levels higher. Once price solidly breaks-out through $52K it will be headed toward $66K, and then $89K above that. Not shown are two higher levels at $126K and then $187K. Somewhat disconcerting is that based on past bouts of volatility Bitcoin can be cut in half at any time. Or not. This is where keeping your eyes on the prize becomes more than a cliche, but will be the greatest buying opportunity of the entire run higher, whether it's to $400K or $5M. We have a tiger by the tail, another cliche yes, but cliches have served stock trading well over the years. "Don't fight the Fed, don't fight the tape" - Marty Zweig. I will be adding to this thesis in the weeks and months ahead as we chronicle the advancement of Bitcoin as the bedrock asset of a new global financial infrastructure. The paradigm in changing, and we are there.
