Actually, not ferns but parallel trend channels. As IWM oscillates between its upward sloping trend channel the future is unclear. A rise above the top line, or a decline below the bottom line, will set the tone for the rest of the winter, spring and summer of 2024. To put a number on it, a decline below 194 once again stands out as the confirmation of the indicated bearish wave count. IWM has already had one false alarm decline triggering new puts. The low today so far is 194.40, so if it holds, its hard to justify new puts. If it fails to hold and especailly if IWM closes below the lower trend line, today at about 192.00, it's all in on the short side (see Mar/Apr Put tables below). Last week's low was 190.06, while the indicated Wave (1) low was 187.53. These are all three markers for getting short via March and/or April IWM puts. Consider 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 as these previous lows give way. If they don't give way, we will be loading the boat on TSLA calls, but that ship is still in dock, not ready to sail just yet, IWM Intermediate Term Trading Model April 19th $190P @ $4.00 If IWM hits its Wave 5 Fib target shown on the above chart, i.e., 152, the April 190P will appreciate 10X, as will all of the puts shown in this table. Going out to April monthly expiration allows for our timing to be off slightly and still achieve 10X returns on speculative puts. IWM March 15th $195P @ $4.00 From the Jan 31st entry these puts are still attractive for a minimum 5X return, but IWM has to turn down hard and stay down through Mar 15th expiration, still 31 days away. April monthly expiration puts would be more forgiving if our timing is off. IWM March 15th Puts (4 1/2 weeks until expiration) One Last Thing: US 10 Year Yield Breaking out?
