Weekend Update: Gold and Bitcoin


Big Picture Observation  

As close as I am to the market day-to-day, I was taken by surprise when spotting this headline Friday: 

Dow Suffers Longest Weekly Losing Streak Of Year As Fed Loses Control Of Short-End

My sense was that the market was going up every day and with the exception of earnings' spikes on individual stocks, it was doing so in a relatively orderly manner. My big picture observation is that while I thought the market was rising, according to the numbers it was falling. So take this with a grain of salt, or skepticism, or, prescience: Triple Top pattern will yield to massive breakout, or breakdown. 


Gold & Bitcoin 

This weekend I want to focus on two "non-stock" stocks that are going their disparate ways, GLD and GBTC.  While I understand that many of you already are positioned in these, for those who aren't or would like to add more, this is a good time based upon the charts and analysis below. 


First up Gold (GLD): The Short-Term Service bought the Jun $120 puts on Wednesday and true to its "Short-term" moniker, the puts popped up over 65% on the very next day. GLD still looks weak having topped out in mid-February. Another Short-Term Sell may trigger as early as Monday. We are also standing by for an Intermediate Term Sell which could come as early as next week. If the pattern above is compelling enough and you just can't wait, the Jun $120 puts are only a buck ($1.00) which makes counting to 35% easy ($1.35) and to $2.00 even easier. Can GLD fall to $118 before Jun 21st (48 days)? 

Next is the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): This is a 2-day chart, where each price bar (candle in this case) represents price range of 2 days. Sometimes there are clearer patterns on the 2-day than daily charts. In this case the pattern is pretty clear on both and directly opposite that of Gold. You would think they would move in tandem, as they are both a form of currency and therefore a hedge against paper money. But not this time as Gold's Intermediate trend is down, while bitcoin's trend is up. In any case, no GBTC option recommendation, because there are no options on the stock, but at $7 and change the leverage is is sufficient enough...GBTC has doubled since its early February lows.


Intermediate Term 


Short-Term (Premium Service) 



PS: I will be on the road for a few days next week, but will still be at the controls for new signals or special situation opportunities.  - Allan