Weekend Update (posted Friday 3:00 pm EDT)


I'll be back in Arizona Tuesday, but will be able to access my charts in the air on Monday should there be any new trading signals. 

Big Picture Update

The biggest issue arising from the week's equity losses in global markets is whether the loss is a straight forward reaction to the failure to reach a trade accord with China, or is this price action the tip of a reversal in the intermediate term trend and was just hiding under the news headlines? 

The past week has done substantial damage to the charts, especially the Nasdaq:

One more thing: The wall-to-wall coverage of the UBER IPO is reminiscent of the dot.com boom and then bust of 1999. If UBER fails, as did LYFT, the market could soon forget about trade talks. 

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

While we were trading GBTC in 2017 it went from (split-adjusted) $1.25 to $38.71. We did very well trading in and out four times during the year, but may as well have simply bought and hold in light of the explosion in the price of bitcoin. Here is a link to the December 2, 2017 post summarizing the trading: GBTC Trading

Although it is almost inconceivable that 2019 could provide a repeat performance in bitcoin/GBTC, so long as the trend is up, as it was throughout 2017, we should be Long and my job this year is to be a little more adament about GBTC than I was in 2017. I'm keeping an eye on those old charts, as well as the new ones, with the intent to not miss that "inconceivable," move up. An exponential rise mirroring that of 2017 would see GBTC run-up from its current $8.50 to $250, about a 30X increase. So just in case, own some GBTC and keep the price entry/exits timing to a bare minimum. I've been pumping it from March 20th @ $4.99, and will continue to do so, subject only to a mostly arbitrary stop at $6.00 (up from the initial stop at $3.75)



Intermediate Term