(Early) Weekend Update: Market Outlook

Trading Alert (and the reason for this early Weekend Update): Two stops were hit on Thursday's big rally that did not generate email Alerts: BABA (Classic) and AMGN (Short-term). Both options have since recovered and are above their respective stop levels. If you exited the trades, you did the right thing. If you haven't, you can exit at better prices today, but I'm leaving the trades open so as to accomodate anyone still in the trades. My apologies for the screw-up; all my fault, although not intentional. 


Bullish: Thanksgiving week is traditionally bullish, although only by an average of about 0.65%.  It is also one of the lowest volume weeks of the year. 

Bearish: The volatility on both sides of the ledger this past week is consistent with weak markets; either beginning or sometimes, ending. Combined with bearish pattern recognition set-ups (see charts below) and ebullient market sentiment, the weakness may just be beginning. 

My Bias: As is noted in the charts below, a break of last week's lows portends reversals down in the major market averages (at least those the have not issued Sell Signals yet) which is all this trading system cares about. For the Dow, that is a break below 23143, some 200-250 points lower. It's hard to imagine that kind of weakness Thanksgiving week, so if it happens make sure to take the trades.

Market/Updates Schedule: Next week the market is closed on Thursday and open for only 1/2 session on Friday. I will be "light" on the updates, but will be close by should any trading new trades need to be sent out.

Stops: Until we completely automate the generation of email stop alerts, these human sent alerts may not always be sent out exactly when the stop is hit. That is not necessarily is a bad thing as is the case today. Nonetheless, stops are there in the tables for a reason and although discretionary with each individual trader, are a component of the trading system whether confirmed via a timely email or not.