The threat of a looming war with North Korea spooked the market last week. Was the reaction warranted?
We have no control over whether or not there will be some war-event triggered somewhere across the globe in the future. I don't even have a clue as to who makes those decisions, some foreign despot, an invisible hand directing domestic geopolitical policy, or some unintentional slip-up by a low ranking soldier under the perceived authority, whether justified or not, under any flag.
There exists a history of war and a history of the stock market's initial reaction to the events from which they were triggered. According to the evidence provided by the charts below the answer is a resounding, Yes!
Why now, this stuff has been going on for the past 10 days, threats to annihilate all life on earth. Notwithstanding last week there certainly is a lot of complacency in global markets, equities and precious metals. The one and only exception?
Bitcoin ETF (GBTC)
Yet over the past few days as the threat of war has eased, Bitcoin (and GBTC) has soared. The threat of war: Bitcoin goes up. The easing of that threat: Bitcoin goes up. Is there a trade here?
The GLD calls entered on July 16th hit their profit taking stop today at $3.53 for a 60% gain. The UGLD ETF is still being held in ETF accounts, as the new stop strategy is for now, limited to option trades only.
Trailing Profit-Taking Stops:
Classic Table: When price in column L drops to price in Column M, exit;
Prime Table: When price in Column O drops to price in Column P. exit.