"Five o'clock in the mornin'
I'm already up and gone
Lord, I'm so tired
How long can this go on?"
After a stellar start in February, the new Intermediate Term Sell Signal has stagnated and worse yet, some of those sizable gains have taken a sizable haircut. How long can this go on?
Awhile back the 25,000 level of the Dow seemed pivotal, bullish above it, bearish below it. Looking over all of my charts, it's time to tweak. The recovery high so far was 25,800 on February 26th. On Monday the Dow gapped up to 25,449 and as been gradually declining ever since. That 25,449 level is now pivotal. Below it expect further price erosion. Above it, the bearish case gets weaker. ABOVE 26,330 THE INTERMEDIATE TERM SELL REVERSES LONG.
On the downside, there are three key levels to start adding puts, each even more aggressively than the one before. First, 25,000, round number support. Next, 24,200 which was the low of of March 2nd, made just before this latest leg higher. AND FINALLY, 23,560 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF THE FIRST LEG DOWN FROM THE JAN 26TH ALL TIME DOW HIGH. As each one of these levels is broken, add more shorts.
How long can this go on? Above 26,340 or below 23,560. That's just a 320 point difference, about three hours or less of fast market action. In other words, any day now.