Interim Alert: The market looks to be initiating a new leg down. It's too early to tell for sure, but this is a nasty looking chart. We are holding the SPY Jun $265 puts, currently up about 30% and potentially up triple digits if this is indeed the start of a move toward the Feb 2nd lows, as our Wave 5 Sell Signal suggests. Updated trading tables out later today.
Bitcoin bottomed in early April just under $7,000 and is trading up over $9,000 today. GBTC bottomed just under $10 in February is trading at $16 today. It took until this weekend to generate a Buy on Bitcoin and yesterday's close to generate a Buy on GBTC. A little too late? Remember, we do not pick turning points, we identify trends and Bitcoin is more of a currency/commodity than a stock and trends more like the former than the latter. Between late October and mid-December last year Bitcoin rallied from $6K to over $19K. During that same time GBTC ran from $9 up to $38. With that kind of volatility in both Bitcoin and GBTC, it's ok to be cautious in not jumping in too early.
Special Situation Portfolio: Long GBTC (no options available); Stop @ $14.34.
GBTC - Daily
GBTC - 180 Minute (New Trading Model)