Thursday/Weekend Update: Going Into September

Since the markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day, this will serve as both the Thursday and Weekend Updates. Tomorrow (Friday) should be a quiet trading session, but with the dropping of bombs on an unpredictable and unstable country's border by the US and S. Korea, I can't help but worry that one hell of a shoe is about to drop at any time. Be prepared for quick action if I say the word. 

The Occasional Home Run - GBTC

Sometimes we get it right and hit one out of the park. Such is the case with Special Situation play, GBTC. This is an ETF that holds only Bitcoin, which itself is up over 700% the past year and up 70% over the past month, while GBTC is up 900% over the past year and 70% over the past month. Our current Long trade is up 155% since the July 21st Buy Signal.  

Why the difference in 12-month returns? There is a premium over cash value in this ETF, probably because it is so easy to use it as a way to participate in Bitcoin-mania so investors are willing to pay up. Not all of our trades are going to do this well in such a short period of time, so don't expect to hit home runs at every at bat. We are mostly interested in doubles and triples (and the occasional strike out). In the end, we expect to win MVP. Thats why it's important to take your swings, otherwise you are just sitting on the bench. 

Where have all the people gone?

The population of Houston is 4.5 million. There are about 30,000 people in shelters. Where is everyone else? 


Blue Line Classic - Intermediate Term


The SPY Nov $240 puts were stopped out near the Close on Thursday. If you haven't done so already exit the position and stand aside for either a fresh Long signal or a re-entry Short.  

Amgen (AMGN)

As suggested in Thursday's interim Alert, AMGN triggered an Intermediate Term Buy Signal at the close. If you haven't done so already, buy the AMGN Dec $180 Calls at Friday's Open. The biotechnology sector took off on Thursday as news of the first ever FDA approval of a gene therapy treatment. AMGN has a substantial gene therapy pipeline and should benefit from new life in the sector. 

Blue Line Prime - Short-Term

As for the Blue Line Prime Short-Term portfolio, the trailing profit-taking stops have 7 out of 8 models in cash, while the new AMGN Long was added on Wednesday is up over 60% in just two days. 

Into September

Seasonally, September is the weakest month of the year. It also has the habit of setting the market up for October crash events. Those October crashes often lead to important lows ushering in new legs up into the end of the year. In any case, the next few months should offer some great opportunities in both Services. 

Remember, swing at those pitches, it's the only way to get on base.