Market Commentary
Today's 200+ rally muddies the water coming after a 300+ point decline off of the Nov 7th Dow all time highs. That makes the next few trading sessions into a traditionally weak Thanksgiving holiday of special importance. Seasonality becomes quite bullish next week, but at the cost of serious volume. Come-on already, market, make up your mind.
On Wednesday's close both the Russell 2000 and NYSE indexes triggered intermediate term sell signals. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq remain in uptrends, albeit not by much. This a "mixed" market, the nemesis of intermediate term trend following. The good news is that it is from mixed markets that strong new trends emerge. We know a new leg up or down is coming, we just don't know when and in what direction. With a broad range of reliable sentient indicators so overwhelmingly overbought, that direction is almost certainly going to be down. Only an extended mixed market, where those levels can come down from overbought to at least neutral levels, would a leg up carry equal potential weight. But for now, we are on the lookout for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq to follow the Russell and NYSE into new downtrends. We are just not there yet.
Trading Models
Below is a screen shot of our eight trading models. Five of the trends are essentially sideways (the "nemesis") and only DIS, AAPL and AMGN in vertical trends.
Bitcoin (GBTC)
What is remarkable about the price action on Bitcoin, and derivatively GBTC, is how every sharp news-driven nose dive that Bitcoin endures is rapidly recovered, often times as quickly if not more so than the decline. It keeps the Special Situation portfolio long GBTC which is only about 10% off of its September all time high.
Bitcoin (GBTC)
What is remarkable about the price action on Bitcoin, and derivatively GBTC, is how every sharp news-driven nose dive that Bitcoin endures is rapidly recovered, often times as quickly if not more so than the decline. It keeps the Special Situation portfolio long GBTC which is only about 10% off of its September all time high.
Next Update: Saturday