Thursday Update: Leading The Way Down

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been leading the Dow and the rest of the market down ever since its all time record high on January 16, 2018. The Dow topped out ten days later on January 26th, and the Nasdaq topped out on about six weeks later on March 3rd. In other words, the Transports have been a leading indicator of overall market direction and bears monitoring for any hint that the downtrend is losing momentum or conversely, is accelerating to the downside. For the time being, the Transports are clearly hard down with the others of the flock following closely behind.

On the above chart of the Transports the importance of the 200 day moving average cannot be more obvious. It has provided stalwart support turning back a free falling index on three separate occasions over the past three months, including a major support event happening about two hours into today's session. If and when this support moving average gives way, expect all of the other indexes to follow...big time.

This is an updated Dow chart from Tuesday's update. Note the price level of the 200 day moving average. It impressively stopped today's decline and turned a 300+ point decline into a gain. We now have a line in the sand which if breached should usher in a new and punishing leg down. Refer to Tuesday's Update for trading instructions. 


***AAPL reverses LONG on a close today above $177. Despite the precarious position of the entire market, a system trade trumps anything else. If AAPL generates this Buy Signal, we will be buying the July $180 calls, currently trading at about $5.00.