Thursday Update: Buy Mickey Mouse

First off, with an hour to go in the trading session, DIS is in Long_Pending mode. If triggered (likely) the portfolio will be buying the March $105 call. A year ago DIS popped from around $90 to $117 in less than six months. 

On to the general market. Note below how the Dow has been contained between the upper and lower trend channels for the entire 5,000 point run the past 12 months. A break below the lower channel, about 750 points lower and rising, breaks the uptrend's back. Seems like a lot of downside, but at these levels it's probably just a week's worth of downside volatility, maybe even less. As you can see from the trend-signal line, the model will already be Short by then. Yes, we will likely be in the red on Disney's fresh buy signal, but the downside potential is so great that loss will be a drop in the proverbial bucket. Small losses/Large gains: It's a trade-off we'll take every time. 

The Russell 2000 (RUT) found support right at its trend-signal line, confirming the importance of that price level. It's likely to be the first domino to fall in any significant downturn in the intermediate term direction of the stock market. If RUT and NYA break down, the Nasdaq, S&P and Dow will not be far behind.