Where Everything Else Becomes Just Noise

I was wrong, the Dow did not go up 1,000 points on Monday, nor did it go down 1,000; but 500 intra-day was enough to take a chunk out of the massive profits we had accumulated last week.

There are two charts that I want to bring front and center in this special Monday update. First, an almost perfect Wave 5 Sell Signal on the Dow hourly chart. Below that an S&P chart going back over 20 years.

Wave 5 Sell Signal: The Dow retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of last week's decline and was turned down by our trend-signal line. That turn down broke the regression channel up from last Friday's lows. The entire retracement may be over.

This is a monthly S&P chart that chronicles over 20-years of longer term price  trends. Most significant is the month of February, 2018. A monthly close below 2536.57 on the SPX will generate only the third long-term SELL SIGNAL in over 20 years. The first two wiped out investors, first with an 80% crash in the Nasdaq and then in the 50% financial crash of 2008. The last day of the month is Wednesday, February 28th. Everything else is just noise. 


*The table indicates all of the positions that hit their stops but does not take into account any of those positions that were only partially liquidated." 

*Note that UVXY's stop has moved up break-even.