Big Picture Strategy & New Biotech


Big Picture Update

"The harder they come, the harder they fall".  - Jimmy Cliff

Big Picture Strategy

I've taken a small position in my longer-term accounts in the SPY January 2020 $250 Puts. They expire on January 17, 2020 (307 days). The overwhelming weight of the evidence is that the market will at a minimum test the Dec '18 lows and in all likelihood exceed them, if not for a day then for a year. Those puts closed Friday at about $6.00 on very heavy volume. They traded as high as $27.50 at the December lows (SPY = 233.76). I'm willing to wait. No stop. This trade takes the elements of time and stress out of the equation. All stock market measures fundamental, technical, and sentimental are pointing down, down, down. Ignore at your own peril. Act upon because of a preference to be in that 10% of market participants who will thrive and prosper down the rough road ahead.  

Transformational Thinking

What do Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX) and Facebook (FB) have in common? They were early-on all transformational companies, discerning the future, seizing opportunity and executing a vision. I've written about current day transformational companies before: Tesla (TSLA), Twilio (TWLO), Invitae (NVTA) and more recently NanoString (NSTG), and Veracyte (VCYT). But for the precarious big picture in the stock market, which gets more and more bearish as prices push higher each week, I would be more aggressive in recommending new longer term ideas, especially in the genomics sector.  For now I am confident that our trading portfolios will offer adequate protection, and significant gains (including the January 2020 LEAP put idea above) from a swift reversal down in equities. This opens the door to discuss some "buy and hold" ideas for longer term appreciation. If the market falls hard enough, these stocks will become tremendous bargains for anyone with a 3-5 year horizon. When to buy is more problematic, what to buy isn't. 

The Jellyfish Effect

Just how exciting is the genomics sector? Ask a jellyfish. 

"Harvard University uncovers DNA switch that controls genes for whole-body regeneration

"In 2016, a Japanese scientist reported that three months after the death of his pet jellyfish, a sea anemone-like polyp rose out of the degraded body, and then astonishingly aged backwards, reverting to a younger state."

More germane to nearer term investment is the use of genomics based therapies to treat and cure the number one and two leading causes of death in the world: Heart disease and cancer.

Up front this weekend: 

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - on a break above $42

"At CRISPR Therapeutics, we are focused on developing transformative gene-based medicines for serious human diseases....We are rapidly translating our specific, efficient and versatile CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing platform into therapies to treat hemoglobinopathies, cancer, diabetes and other diseases." 

The link to CRISPR's website is there because they can do a much better job of describing their science and collaborations and how they fit into the genomics revolution much better than I can. Twenty minutes of reading what they are doing in and out of the lab and I knew this was a stock I wanted to own and recommend to my friends and subscribers. We are buying a breakout, and its not that far away.  

Why wait for a break above $42? We don't want this one to get away from us and I'm willing to pay the extra $4.25 in exchange for a clean break-out. If the market tanks before the breakout, we will dollar cost average down.


*If there is any interest in having an independent broker trade the system for anyone, email me at This would be completely outside of the scope of our services, but I would be happy to make the introduction.