Tuesday Update: Support...Or Not

We have begun the final quarter of 2017 with the three major market indexes, DJIA, SPX & Nasdaq making new highs on pretty much a daily basis. It's almost expected and the real news would be any day when one index or another didn't make a new high. Retracements historically should act as pauses that refresh the dominant trend. Without an even moderate retracement in such a long time when one eventually asserts itself it could very well be a harbinger of something more serious.  

Below are three progressively longer time frames on which to assess the health of the Dow in relation to both trend-line support and an emerging Elliott Wave terminal set-up. The former is clear and objective, we have exact price levels for trend identification. The latter, EW, is showing Waves 5 of 5 of 5 in all time frames. Putting these two disparate prisms of analysis together, we have three levels of support that could lead to confirmation that anything from shorter-term to longer-term bullish trends are in trouble. Each step lower becomes more important than the one just above. 

Shortest Term: Hourly Trend Models = 22,689

Medium Term: 240 Minute Trend Model = 22,570

Longer-Term Models: Daily Price Bars = 22,457

Should the first of these levels, 22,689 be breached, look to the next level, 22,570 for support. If that level falls, that leaves 22,457 as the last bastion of support before the entire 800 point YTD rally is in jeopardy of being retraced. Beyond that, at just below 20,000, we start looking at the 8 year bull market from the lows of March 2009 for support. Below there, don't ask.  

FAQ: Why so bearish? 
Answer: I'm not bearish, trends are higher. Were the levels above to be taken out, I get progressively less bullish and more bearish commensurate with the extent and velocity of any decline.  Remember, everyone is bullish at the top...and usually for quite bit thereafter.